Friday, 29 November 2013

29-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

29/11/2013 - Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 29/11/2013


Quote for the day

“These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation.”
- Paul Tudor Jones

Richard Donchian’s 20 Trading Guides

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides (First publication: 1934)

General Guides:

01. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.

02. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.

03. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.

04. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.

05. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.

06. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.

07. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons - a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%

08. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders."

09. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.

10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.

11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides:

01. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.

02. Reversal or resistance to a move is likely to be encountered
(i) On reaching levels at which in the past, the commodity has fluctuated for a considerable length of time within a narrow range
(ii) On approaching highs or lows

03. Watch for good buying or selling opportunities when trend lines are approached, especially on medium or dull volume. Be sure such a line has not been hugged or hit too frequently.

04. Watch for "crawling along" or repeated bumping of minor or major trend lines and prepare to see such trend lines broken.

05. Breaking of minor trend lines counter to the major trend gives most other important position taking signals. Positions can be taken or reversed on stop at such places.

06. Triangles of ether slope may mean either accumulation or distribution depending on other considerations although triangles are usually broken on the flat side.

07. Watch for volume climax, especially after a long move.

08. Don't count on gaps being closed unless you can distinguish between breakaway gaps, normal gaps and exhaustion gaps.

09. During a move, take or increase positions in the direction of the move at the market the morning following any one-day reversal, however slight the reversal may be, especially if volume declines on the reversal.

Richard Donchian
Richard Donchian graduates from Yale with a BA in economics and begins his Wall Street career in 1930. From 1933-1935 he writes a technical market letter for Hemphill, Noyes & Co. For several years thereafter, he publishes a stock market service, "Security Pilot," and sells it to brokerage houses. During WW II he serves as an Air Force statistical control officer with a group they call the "Whiz Kids." For two years after the war, he acts as economic trend analyst and market letter writer for Shearson Hamill & Co. Quotes from his "Market Outlook" letters appear in the Wall Street Journal and other financial publications. He joins Hayden, Stone in 1960 and becomes VP and Director of Commodity Research. He writes numerous articles including "Trend Following Methods in Commodity Price Analysis." He publishes a weekly "Commodity Trend Timing" letter, based on his 5-20 moving average method and achieves a circulation of over 10.000.


Thursday, 28 November 2013

28-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 28/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 28/11/2013


Quote for the day

"Over short periods of time, you can do the wrong thing and make a lot of money and do the right thing and look like an idiot. We try to stick to what we do well and not get too caught up in what's “working” at any given moment. In the long run, that sort of discipline will keep you from blowing up." - Phillip Goldstein

The Seven Key Emotions of the Winning Trader

One thing that trips up new traders is that they are surprised at the emotions that flood into them when they begin the process of trading with real money. Their ego engages and they do not want to be wrong and they sure don’t want to lose money. The negative downward emotional spiral takes down more traders than the math, risk management, or markets ever will. Once the negativity begins it is hard to stop, so travel down the right emotional road if you truly want to be a winning trader, here is what that looks like:

Choose the emotions that you participate in carefully.

1. Contentment: The trader must be satisfied that they are trading the right system for their risk tolerance and beliefs about the market.

2. Hopefulness: A trader must have the belief that he will win in the long term and it is worth the effort to capture the future profits.

3. Optimism: Winning traders believe that they are always getting closer to that next big winner.

4. Positive Expectations: To be successful the trader must expect that in the long run his robust system will produce profits and not lose faith during drawdowns.

5. Enthusiasm: The winning trader enjoys the trading process and loves playing the game that is the markets.

6. Passion: The traders that end up as the big winners are the ones that have the drive to keep learning, keep growing, and put in the work needed because of the energy that comes from their passion.

7. Empowerment: The best traders in the market can not even imagine doing anything else but trading. They truly get joy from the freedom of being a trader and love what they do.


Wednesday, 27 November 2013

27-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 27/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New Low on 27/11/2013

Quote for the day

"Everything relates to failure. We grow up experiencing failure as children and then we go through it as adults. The key is understanding that failure is how we improve. You do this not by ignoring the failure, but by recognizing it, examining it thoroughly and not making any changes until you truly understand it." - Henry Petroski

Is this you?

Over the 17 years I've been involved in trading and working with all types of traders, I've seen four types of profitable discretionary traders.

The first type of profitable discretionary trader is the one who has a natural feel for the market. When you talk to one of these traders and ask them about their trading at some point you'll hear them say something about ‘feeling the market was this way or that….’. These are traders who over the years have acquired a lot of implicit knowledge of the market and its participants. They understand what moves markets and they also have the required self-trust to act on their ideas and to protect themselves when they are wrong. Their personalities allow them to have the self-trust to know their limits and believe in their capabilities. We could call them a ‘natural born trader’; and there are very few of them. Although Jesse Livermore eventually blew-out, he’s an example of this rare type of natural trader.

The second type of profitable trader – or more accurately temporarily profitable – is the lucky trader; the trader whose P&L is currently in an up swing but they'll soon be negative. Often these traders either got lucky with a number of trades and can not replicate it, or they learned the habit of holding onto losing trades and they got lucky when those positions came back. This accounts for the largest number of “profitable traders” – but for these traders the money often leaves faster than it arrived.

The third type of profitable trader is the trader who although they are discretionary, they've developed some mechanical rules for entry and exits and are able to follow their rules most of the time. Many traders strive to be this kind of trader, but I've seen very few mechanical rule based discretionary traders succeed over the long haul. Consistently following mechanical entry/exit rules sounds appealing, and it requires a ton of will power; and most people don't have that kind of willpower, not to mention the fact that willpower fatigue is a well-documented problem.

The fourth type of profitable trader is the one who has proactively developed their feel – the kind of feel the more experienced trader has developed over many years. This type of trader has acquired some market knowledge, they understand what moves markets, and they have proactively worked to understand their own personal vulnerabilities. This self-knowledge has allowed them to be able to distinguish between an impulse and an intuition… and they’they've developed enough self-trust to be able to act on their market feel. This is what I do with my clients.

What kind of trader are you?

By Dr. Andrew Menaker 

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

26-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 26/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 26/11/2013

Quote for the day

“Being a great trader is a process. It's a race with no finish line. The markets are not static. No single style or approach can provide superior results over long periods of time. To continue to outperform, the great traders continue to learn and adapt.” - Jack Schwager

Monday, 25 November 2013

25-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 25/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New Low on 25/11/2013

Quote for the day

“Ninety percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control. ” - Paul Tudor Jones

Are You A Lemming? Herd Mentality

Many investors react to market conditions like lemmings; stampeding up the high mountain when markets are rising and down into the cold deep sea when markets are falling! This "herd" mentality can be extremely dangerous to your pocketbook.

Because investors often get into the market too late and get out too early!

You should never let emotions cloud your trading judgment. But you can turn the crowd's fear and greed to your advantage! To exploit market psychology, you must act in a Contrarian fashion, taking the contrary course when the crowd falls prey to its emotions.

Extreme optimism can coincide with market tops.
People think the sky's the limit and send stock prices flying. Savvier investors sell into this frenzy and run to cash. The market tanks soon afterwards!

Extreme pessimism can be bullish.
Toward the end of a big decline, the last bulls throw in the towel and sell with a vengeance.

Cooler heads smell a fire sale. They dive into the market and buy equities with both hands to launch the next rally!

Studies by economists and psychologists have found that investors are most influenced by recent events --market news, political events, earnings, and so on-- and ignore long-term investment and economic fundamentals.

Furthermore, if a movement starts in one direction, it tends to pick up more and more investors with time and momentum. The impact of this lemming-like behavior has been made worse in recent years because financial, economic, and other news affecting investor psychology travel faster than ever before.

Capital can also flow now between nations with surprising ease, so that international markets respond more quickly to sudden changes with a domino effect in the direction of investor buying and selling.

So how do you avoid joining the lemmings?

How do you stay calm during market drops and restrained during market updrafts?

Here are a few guidelines:
A. Have a plan and know why you're investing and what you want to accomplish.

B. Pick a strategy and investments that best help you reach your goals.

C. Minimize risks and don't fall prey to the temptations of greed or fear.

D. Know your investment personality.

E. Pick investment strategies and risks you feel comfortable with.

F. Stick to your investment approach. If you follow a certain type of investing strategy or a particular investment newsletter, stick with it unless there are sound reasons to change.Different strategies often can end up with similar results over the course of a market cycle.

It's the switching back and forth between strategies that can cause problems because jittery investors often abandon a strategy that's temporarily out of favor--just before it makes a strong recovery.

G. Sort out the good from the bad.

H. Learn to recognize the difference between a poor investment and a solid investment that is having an off period.

I. Diversify and invest regularly according to your long-term plan and

J. Don't read the stock pages! It's the daily following of the inevitable ups and downs of the market that send the average investors reaching for the phone. Instead, check every two to three months.

Saturday, 23 November 2013

The Top 100 Secrets Of High-Achievers

How do you feel about success?

What exactly separates the successful from the downtrodden, the prolific author from the closet hack, the well-loved executive from the slime ball boss?

The high achieving from the mediocre?

Quite a lot, actually.

One hundred things, to be exact.


  1. Take responsibility for their actions. In a world filled with avatars, anonymity, and spineless behavior, the individual who “owns” their actions truly stands out from the crowd.
  2. Know other people look to them for guidance. High-achievers recognize their responsibility to lead others. They recognize that they may serve as an inspiring figure to those around them and use this opportunity to bring everyone up.
  3. Create their own reality. Reality is but a perception. High-achievers recognize this and craft a reality that works for them, not against.
  4. Do something about it. If there is a chance to improve their surroundings, they take it. They are driven to action. This sets them apart.
  5. Never cast the first stone. They make sure their own life is in order before doling out advice to others. The best way to lead is by example.
  6. Illegitimi non carborundum. High-achievers don’t let the bastards grind them under. When you excel, others will always try to drag you back to their level. High-achievers maintain their resolve.
  7. Work hard. Success requires effort – gritty, sweat-inducing, back-aching effort. High-achievers show up every single day and put in the hours. This simple act, over time, distances them from the pack.
  8. Turn the conversation around. When others resort to negativity, they return to the positive. Optimism rules.
  9. Always have a choice. High-achievers recognize that the choices they make dictate their life’s direction… and every moment is a choice. Even in the most harrowing of circumstances, they see choices. They may not always make the right choice, but at least they make one.
  10. Have haters. The most important individuals in world history were considered rejects, outcasts, and sometimes insane. They were hated by the masses and their ideas reduced to drivel. And yet their legacies live on because these people mattered.
  11. Embrace loneliness. The extra mile is never crowded.
  12. Embrace discomfort. High-achievers see discomfort as growth. They see it as an opportunity to adapt. They embrace it… because work requires pain.
  13. Are quick to forgive. They accept their own imperfection, which allows them to easily forgive those around them.
  14. Live honestly. They are honest with themselves – about their strengths, weaknesses, and limitations – and with others. Because honesty will never steer them wrong.
  15. Write. Across the board, high-achievers tend to have one thing in common: they put their thoughts on paper. They let the paper worry about things. And this planning and introspection allows them to foresee potential obstacles and consider ways to overcome them before they occur.
  16. Never fail. It’s only failure if you're not learning from the experience. High achievers learn from everything.
  17. Move on quickly. They have many demands on their time and attention. Therefore, they cannot afford to dwindle on the past.
  18. Know when to quit. High-achievers quit early in a process after strategic evaluation. It is much less costly to quit early and pivot than to “stick to your guns” until quitting becomes blatantly necessary, but incredibly painful.
  19. Don't compare themselves to others. They focus on their own achievement and realize that comparisons will only cause anxiety and waste their time.
  20. Take precautions against burnout. They understand that excessive stress can lead to ineffectiveness, so they take the time to relax and recharge before it’s too late.
  21. Over deliver. They always go beyond what is asked from them and love to surprise others with outstanding “bonuses.”
  22. Under promise. And at the same time they take precautions to never promise more than they can deliver. This always sets them up for success when they complete the task.
  23. Are humble. The more magnetic and well-liked high-achievers are content with themselves - they have healthy self-esteem. Therefore, they feel no need to brag about their accomplishments.
  24. Serve others. High-achievers dedicate their lives to helping others through their craft or medium. They understand that it’s their tribe – their audience of supporters – who are paramount to their success, and they thrive in this type of win-win situation.
  25. Understand that we are all self-employed. Even those in traditional careers paths acknowledge that, at the end of the day, they choose to answer to themselves, to hold themselves to higher standards. Because achievement births contentment.
  26. Relish in overcoming obstacles. High-achievers see obstacles as opportunities. Victims see them as roadblocks.
  27. Are tenacious. They are hell-bent on succeeding, in any capacity. And they will make it happen, no matter what.
  28. Are self-reliant. They understand how much they can ask of themselves for any given task. They aim for less friction by taking as much responsibility as they can handle.
  29. But need others. High-achievers also know how important other people are to their success. This truth is the backbone for how they treat others.
  30. Ship. If perfection stands in the way of shipping, they ship. High-achievers are always shipping – they do not worry about perfection, they focus on delivery. Done is better than perfect.
  31. Are magnetic. Their passion and drive are contagious. People want to be around them, which naturally increases their magnetism.
  32. Are enthusiastic. They're going after their dreams so enthusiasm radiates from within.
  33. Understand their limitations. High-achievers understand that the only way to transcend one’s limits is to first understand where the limits actually lie.
  34. Understand their value. Knowing their value gives them the confidence to excel and deliver that value day-in and day-out.
  35. Exude passion. High-achievers are on a mission – and their passion shows. Act like the person they aspire to be. Even the most successful among us have bigger aspirations, more they would like to achieve. Following a role model is a surefire way to learn from someone else’s strengths… and weaknesses.
  36. Live by faith. High-achievers believe in something bigger than themselves. They believe they serve a higher purpose than self-interest.
  37. Begin with the end in mind. They are goal-oriented and formulate a plan for reaching the end.
  38. Take small steps. They understand that small steps are the only sustainable way to make an impact, to truly facilitate lasting change.
  39. Track progress. Self-monitoring allows them to pivot when necessary and learn from mistakes. They also ruthlessly hack away at the unnecessary baggage so the journey is as efficient as possible.
  40. Are patient. They understand that success takes time.
  41. Have a “take” mentality. Instead of waiting around to be handed something, they choose themselves. They take what they need and go after opportunities. If an opportunity does not present itself, the high-achiever makes her own opportunity.
  42. Utilizes rituals. They recognize that willpower is limited. They use rituals to streamline their processes throughout the day so as to save as much mental energy as possible for the most important things.
  43. Talks daily with the lizard brain. Most people just listen to their internal opposition; high-achievers actually talk back. And most of the time choose to defy it.
  44. Understand the value of a compass. When given guidance from someone they respect, they take it.
  45. Don't equate comfort with happiness. High-achievers reject the notion that settling will make them happy. They feel truly alive and content when they’re constantly pushing their boundaries, making themselves uncomfortable.
  46. Are addicted to feeling alive. They feel most alive when testing their limits, so naturally they excel and positively reinforce this addiction.
  47. Know that in struggle, you find magic. High-achievers struggle just as much as everyone else, they just see it differently. They see the breaking down and rebuilding process as necessary for growth.
  48. Recognize that discomfort is a catalyst for progress. Discomfort does not scare them. It is an opportunity to embrace the unknown and move forward.
  49. Lean into struggle. In the midst of pain, instead of retreating, they lean into it and endure.
  50. Make time. High-achievers understand that busyness is just laziness in disguise.
  51. Communicate their value to the world. They're able to achieve so much precisely because they make their value known to the people who matter.
  52. Communicate between members of their tribe. The people who matter most to them are those who recognize their value. As long as they nurture this community, their success continues to grow.
  53. Respect themselves. They respect themselves enough to know that nothing less than their best is ever an option – that living for anything less than their dreams is not only unjust, but a waste of time.
  54. Respect others. High-achievers understand that other people deserve just as much respect as they give to themselves.
  55. Respect the path they have chosen. They realize that the path they have chosen is rocky and treacherous, full of people and things that want to get in their way. They do not hope for Easy Street – they expect the Road to Mordor.
  56. Cultivate the power to focus. They take focus very seriously. After all, intense focus is what allows them to complete and ship when others fail. They’re constantly challenging their focus, fine-tuning it.
  57. Cultivate clarity. A clear vision is paramount to their success. And it requires constant maintenance.
  58. Allow themselves to celebrate. They understand the need to celebrate victories, no matter how small. The positive reinforcement goes a long way and keeps them sane.
  59. Create balance. A body or mind out-of-balance is ultimately detrimental to achievement. The high-achiever remains focused on intense efforts that may tip the scales one way, but is quick to recover when necessary. This balance allows them to create sustainable habit patterns.
  60. Enjoy compliments. Like all people, they enjoy praise. It validates their effort.
  61. Give compliments. They have no problem doling out sincere compliments. This attracts people to them.
  62. Are sincere. When they say something, they mean it.
  63. Create an optimal environment. High-achievers understand the need for an optimal work and living environment – for productivity and stress reasons.
  64. Tolerate risk. Their capacity for taking risks is likely what set them apart from the beginning, especially as the risks became more calculated and their returns increased.
  65. Set a proper pace. They understand that life is a marathon, not a sprint.
  66. Surround themselves with winners. They believe that you are the product of the five people you spend the most time with. So they don’t waste time with people who will try to drag them down. See #6.
  67. Are empathetic. Their capacity for putting themselves into the situations of others allows them to connect with people on an important level. It also allows them the opportunity to understand many viewpoints without necessarily agreeing.
  68. Know when to ask for help. Because they recognize their limits and are secure in their skin, they have no problem reaching out for help when it is necessary.
  69. Create their luck. If they believe in luck, they sure as hell don't wait around for it to find them. You're as likely to find them buying a daily lotto ticket as you are of finding a leprechaun with a pot of gold.
  70. Reinforce emotional balance. Emotionally unstable people can achieve great things, but only over the short term – before they implode. The high-achiever takes a long-term approach and in doing so, places a value on her emotional well-being.
  71. Delegate. They know what they need to focus on to have the highest chances of success, and they delegate everything else.
  72. Believe in themselves unwaveringly. They know they will succeed; it is just a matter of how many times they're willing to fail and learn from their mistakes before it happens.
  73. Are willing to do the mundane. They see value in places others do not. They recognize that small, everyday tasks add up as long as they keep showing up.
  74. Cultivate their skills. High-achievers are skilled. Skills can be marketed and sold. They can be fine-tuned and improved upon. On the other hand, generality will always be generality.
  75. Say ‘no’. They know when to get rid of distractions. And they learn how to avoid overextending themselves.
  76. Doubt themselves. High-achievers have intense periods of self-doubting like everyone else. How they respond to it, however, is completely different.
  77. Read. They appreciate the knowledge of those before them. They appreciate good teachers and wisdom because it saves them years worth of trial-and-error in their own lives.
  78. Are talented. And not necessarily because they were born that way – but because they chose to be.
  79. Prioritize. They understand what needs to be done now, soon, and in the future. 
  80. Start young. Most high-achievers are driven as children. And their successes and failures during childhood shape how they carry out the remainder of their lives.
  81. Monitor feedback. High-achievers get more feedback than other people – partly because they ask for it, and partly because they put themselves out where they can be criticized – they make themselves uncomfortable. They ignore the haters and learn from constructive criticism, and continue to grow as a result.
  82. Will challenge dogma. They generally have no issues challenging the status quo. Heck, it’s what drove them away from mediocrity in the first place.
  83. Exhibit poise. Even under pressure the high-achiever will remain poised and calm enough to complete the task at hand and continue to ship.
  84. Self-educate. Most high-achievers are obsessive self-educators. Why? Because pushing boundaries requires that they be constantly learning, constantly making connections that others do not see.
  85. Have intense insecurities. High-achievers generally have as many, and possibly more, insecurities than others. But it’s these very insecurities that drive them to high performance as a compensatory response.
  86. Live in the now. They do not worry about the past. And they plan for the future. But anything more requires too much wasted energy.
  87. Rest. High-achievers know the importance of rest and relaxation. Some may meditate or exercise, while others may do something else that fits them.
  88. Are sensory goal oriented. They translate goals into tangible steps – things they can see, touch, feel, and hear. This allows them to truly experience the process every step of the way.
  89. They do not make excuses. Making excuses is a weakness reserved for the complacent and mediocre. A high-achiever owns their actions.
  90. Try to bring others up with them. High-achievers are not selfish. They realize that others look up to them and are willing to help these people succeed as well.
  91. Don't take people for granted. They treat others by the Golden Rule.
  92. Understand the importance of stress. They know that some stress is necessary if they are to ever grow and develop, but that too much can be detrimental.
  93. Respect money. They do not solely seek money. They operate on a higher level – one focused on purpose. However, they appreciate the opportunities that money provides and the freedom it can facilitate.
  94. Give freely. They're gracious and grateful for the opportunities they have in life and are willing to freely give of themselves to help others along the way.
  95. Prepare. Preparation keeps the high-achiever from unpleasant surprises with regards to anything within their control. 
  96. Leverage their intelligence. They understand the gift of intelligence, and no matter how much or how little they possess, they leverage it to get optimal returns.
  97. Address anxiety. They recognize the reality of anxiety and take the proper measures to quell it before damaging opportunities.
  98. Value physical health. They understand that the fundamental root of all thriving in life lies in their health.
  99. Know that high-achievement is a cycle. High-achievers positively reinforce their actions in order to feed the achievement cycle, driving them to bigger and better things over time.
  100. Take a hard look in the mirror every day. They've made the decision to define themselves, to look in the mirror every morning and return the gaze with a purposeful, fulfilled individual.

The world has enough mediocrity. It seeps into every nook and cranny, lurks behind
every door, whispers across every earlobe.

It drags our souls out to bask in the sun of complacency--the silent killer.

No, what we need are more self-defined go-getters, more people who are willing to take
risks and own the outcome, to tenaciously strive for excellence in all that they do, and to
elevate those around them in the process.

We need more high-achievers.

Will you answer the call?


How to Select the Best Stock

Selecting the best stock for investment is not a simple procedure. We will have to study and analyse a few facts before we invest in some stocks. It is too vast a subject to give a clear cut idea, the analysis of the following criteria will help you in selecting the best available stocks.

* Earnings Per Share(EPS) and PE Ratio
* Book Value Per Share
* Debt Equity Ratio (Divide Total Debt by Total Equity)
* Current Ratio (Divide Current Assets by Current Liabilities)
* Profit Margin (Divide the Net Profit with Revenue)
* Return on Capital Employed and Return on Equity
* Dividend History
* Profit Growth
* Cash Flow Details
* Business Segment and Growth Potential
* Size of the Company
* Competitive Advantage In the Market
* Brand Value and Product Differentiation
* Goodwill
* Market Scenario
* Economic Strategy of the Company
* Economic Atmosphere of the Place of Main Operation of the Company
* Political Influential Factors of the Country

These are the criteria that help you in selecting the best available stock. However, it does not mean that the all of these criteria must be favorable for a stock for being eligible. You can leave out some criteria or give more weight age to the other favorable criteria over the adverse ones, depending upon the time period you are planning to held the shares or how much risk you are ready to undertake.

Friday, 22 November 2013

22-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 22/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 22/11/2013

Quote for the day

"Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital." - Denis Gartman

Thursday, 21 November 2013

Sri Lankan Dhammika Perera's Master Plan

Dhammika Perera didn’t become one of Sri Lanka’s richest people by luck. It was actually by design. Back in 1999, when he was 32, he developed a 20-year plan for his fledgling businesses with the help of a mentor. His audacious goal: Become the country’s leader in each of 12 sectors by 2019.

He’s already succeeded in 9 of the sectors, building best-in-class companies in tourism, banking, apparel and other industries. Indeed, his Royal Ceramics Lanka appeared in 2010 and last year on FORBES ASIA’s list of the best 200 listed Asia-Pacific companies with under $1 billion in annual sales.

Today his empire boasts 23 listed companies–that’s 8% of all companies traded on the Colombo Stock Exchange–and dozens of private ones. His reach extends to Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, the U.K. and elsewhere, and those outfits employ some 62,000 people. He supplies Wal-Marts in Canada, makes blue jeans for Levi’s and produces tea that’s shipped worldwide. With Sri Lanka growing fast since its 26-year civil war ended four years ago, his companies are taking off. His listed stakes are worth $190 million.

But his three Colombo casinos and other unlisted assets boost his wealth to roughly $550 million, one of the country’s four biggest fortunes (see below). He says his companies pay 5% of all corporate taxes in Sri Lanka, and his goal is to raise that number to 10% because “more taxes mean [his companies are getting] more business and a bigger market share.”

Perera, 45, works from a cavernous and spartan office on the 29th floor of the west tower of Colombo’s World Trade Center, the country’s tallest buildings. But this isn’t an executive suite; it’s an investment office. He doesn’t run his companies–he buys controlling stakes in them. Using mathematical models that he’s developed over the years, he’s a numbers guy who hunts for undervalued assets and then swoops in. Once he has the right managers in place, he gives them their head. A turnaround artist, he gets credit for revamping much of corporate Sri Lanka, which stagnated during the long years of war as foreign investors stayed away and competition shriveled.

There are only a handful of pictures in his office, and two of them are of Perera shaking hands with Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He is a big fan of Rajapaksa. “Only he had the guts to end terrorism,” says Perera. “He put himself in harm’s way.” The president, in turn, has appointed Perera to top government positions. He was chairman of Sri Lanka’s Board of Investment for three years, until 2010, where he would meet with anyone looking to invest $50,000 or more in the country. He’s now Sri Lanka’s secretary of transport, working to develop the highway system as part of a 25- year master plan. He’s also one of five board members of the Strategic Enterprise Management Agency, which oversees state-owned enterprises.

These posts, all unpaid, have generated criticism from some for the appearance of conflicts of interest and praise from others for his service to the country.

Perera’s story isn’t rags-to-riches. He says his great-grandfather was the richest person in his home village of Payagala, an hour’s drive south of Colombo. He owned most of the farmland in the area, but being rich in poor, rural Sri Lanka was like being middle class in Colombo, which is how Perera grew up. His father was in the grocery business. He credits his mother, a schoolteacher, with teaching him cash-management skills. She began giving him an allowance of $3 a month at age 11, and for eight years he had to stretch that money to pay for drinks, food and school fees.

A born investor, he started as a teenager by putting money into a street hawker’s business in front of his uncle’s café. Then he rented slot machines and installed them inside the café. In 1987, with the country four years into the civil war, Perera dropped out of the University of Moratuwa, a top technology school south of Colombo. Instead, he went to Taiwan for three months of technical training, then returned home and started a business making slot machines, instead of just renting them. He hired his 17-year-old brother, Harindra, as the floor supervisor of their new factory. (Their youngest brother, Anuradha, was only 15 at the time but now is also in business with them; they have one sister.) In 1993 he moved into the gambling business itself, opening his first casino. He’s replacing the casinos now, starting with construction of the 40-story, 500-room Queensbury Integrated Resort & Casino, which will cost $350 million.

But he no longer makes slot machines, and he likes to downplay his involvement with casinos, saying they account for only 3% to 4% of the total profits of his companies.

In 1999 his career took a new direction when he found a mentor in Nadeem ul Haque, the senior resident representative of the International Monetary Fund in Sri Lanka. Perera says ul Haque, “encouraged [him] on how to behave, how aggressive to be.” Ul Haque organized a seminar for him on infrastructure and business development at KfW bank in Germany. Perera came back “with a new perspective on mathematical models.” He had earned a better appreciation “for how to avoid risk factors and for cash-flow management.”

Ul Haque and Perera then sat down and drew up the 20-year plan. With six years to go Perera still needs to conquer 3 of the 12 sectors: health care, insurance and telecoms. He has plans for the health care and insurance sectors, but he is still pondering what the right business model will be for telecoms because the technology changes so rapidly.

Today ul Haque, now the deputy chairman of Pakistan’s planning commission, looks back at how Perera has been able to maneuver around Sri Lanka’s often business-stifling government: “I was particularly impressed by how he converted limited regulatory space into a financial empire. Even more interesting, he was able to lever his business empire into politics and established himself at the policy level in Sri Lanka.”

One of the 12 sectors is tourism, and Perera began investing there in 2000 in anticipation of the war ending. He now has a number of luxury resorts and hotels–600 rooms in all, with another 1,200 in the pipeline. Sri Lanka got more than 1 million visitors last year for the first time. He envisions 2.5 million visitors by 2016 and 5 million by 2020.

A chat with Perera begins with math. He has built his empire largely through acquisitions–15 in all–and for him, fixing companies comes down to getting their mathematical models right. His staff researches business models and balance sheets. “With that knowledge, [we] can identify companies” that are good acquisitions. He makes it sound easy. “Of course!” he says.

Some purchases, however, don’t pan out, and Perera isn’t shy about discussing them. There was a clothing and department store business he exited after one year because custom duties made the business model unworkable. He had a small interest in three ships for a decade, but the global recession that began in 2008 made the shipping business “no longer worth the headache.” There was a local bank he bought with the idea of using it to buy other assets and then turning it around. But reviving it turned out to be more complex than he anticipated, and it failed to give him access to other deals he wanted, so he sold out after 2 years.

Perera is also proud to recite his successes. Royal Ceramics Lanka, which makes ceramic tiles and porcelain bathroom fixtures, earned only $400,000 in 2000, when he bought it; it’s expected to post $18 million in profits on $127 million in revenue for the year ending Mar. 31. Local bank Sampath went from a $10 million profit in 2007 to a $41 million profit last year. He saw untapped value in 135-year-old conglomerate Hayley’s and began buying up stock. He’s now the largest shareholder; Hayley’s is his biggest deal and, with $615 million in revenue for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, it’s his biggest company. Profits have soared from $2.8 million in the year ended Mar. 31, 2009, when he joined the board, to $20.5 million over the 12-month period.

His right-hand man in dealmaking is Nimal Perera, who is unrelated. He met Nimal after buying Pan Asia Banking in 2000. Nimal, 54, worked there and advised Dhammika on buying shares. After he decides on a purchase, Nimal closes the deal. Dhammika sets annual goals for each company, and if it meets the goals, then the management is left alone and “we’re just investors,” he says. If the company doesn’t perform, then the two “interfere in the business” to bring it up to par. Turning around a company begins by changing the management and changing the business model, says Dhammika. He compares a company with world standards by looking at the best company in that sector and aiming for that level.

Many of Perera’s private holdings are waiting to reach a certain size before they’re packaged for an initial public offering. His first holding company, Vallibel One, contains stakes in seven of his listed companies and went public in June 2011. He plans to create a Vallibel Two, Three, Four and Five. Three of these will be for his children, all daughters, ages 13, 10 and 7. “They will own the business, but professionals will manage it,” he says. And the other two Vallibels? “For charity.”

As a Buddhist, as is most of the country, Perera meditated regularly for two years beginning in 1999. He credits meditation with increasing his focus, but he felt that the experience was becoming too intense and he stopped.

He doesn’t like to drink or watch movies. He likes cars but only Mercedes–he has six of them. He says he’s owned only two watches in his life, both Rolexes. But these signs of wealth don’t seem important to him. What he really enjoys is spending his leisure time studying the business models of companies around the world.

“I need a little pressure on my mind to be happy,” he says. “Then I feel aggressive, able to work and feel pressure. Otherwise, I’m lazy, too relaxed.”

The Wealthiest Sri Lankans
Dhammika Perera’s estimated $550 million fortune is most likely one of the four biggest in Sri Lanka. It’s impossible to rank the four piles because much of the wealth is held in private assets, but in alphabetical order, here are the other three:

Sohli and Rusi Captain
Family is the largest shareholder in conglomerate John Keells Holdings and Chemical Industries Colombo. Investments include banking, paint, agribusiness, raw materials, packaging and pharmaceuticals. Stock market wealth totals $185 million. Father Sohli turned 80 in September; son Rusi, 48, a graduate of the University of Miami in Florida, is an entrepreneur and investor.

Harry Jayawardena
Chairman of the Stassen Group, which he founded as a tea exporter in 1977, and conglomerate Distilleries Co. of Sri Lanka. The 71-year-old was awarded the Knight’s Cross of Dannebrog by Queen Margrethe II of Denmark for his contributions to Danish arts, sciences and business.

Hari and Mano Selvanathan
The brothers’ empire is largely private. Their listed companies Carson Cumberbatch, Bukit Darah, Ceylon Beverage Holdings and others are involved in palm oil, financial management, brewing, real estate and hotels.

Hari, 64, and Mano, 66, are the grandsons of an Indian immigrant who arrived in Colombo nearly 100 years ago, started a petrol station and never stopped expanding.

21-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 21/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 21/11/2013

Quote for the day

"Losing a position is aggravating, whereas losing your nerve is devastating." - Ed Seykota

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

20-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 20/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 20/11/2013


Quote for the day

"Confidence is every part of trading. If you're not convinced that you can win, you should never climb into the ring." - Marty Schwartz

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

19-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 19/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New Low on 19/11/2013

Quote for the day

"Risk is a no-fooling-around game; it does not allow for mistakes. If you do not manage the risk, eventually they will carry you out.” - Larry Hite

Monday, 18 November 2013

Why Your Trading Isn't Working Out

A good physician knows that, before cure comes a diagnosis. You cannot treat a problem before you identify what that problem is.

All too often, traders assume that their performance problems are due to a single cause: trading the wrong chart pattern or indicator, having the wrong mindset, etc. As a result, they seek out one trading guru or coach after another, only to see their P/L head steadily south.

The reality is that there are quite a few reasons why trading might be unprofitable. Figuring out which might apply to you is the first step is getting the right help.

Here's a fourfold scheme that I have found helpful in conceptualizing trading problems:

1) Problems of training and experience - Many traders put their money at risk well before they have developed their own trading styles based on the identification of an objective edge in the marketplace. They are not emotionally prepared to handle risk and reward, and they are not sufficiently steeped in markets to separate randomness from meaningful market patterns. They are like beginning golfers who decide to enter a competitive tournament. Their frustrations are the result of lack of preparation and experience. The answer to these problems is to develop a training program that helps you develop confidence and competence in identifying meaningful market patterns and acting upon those. Online trading rooms, where you can observe experienced traders apply their skills, are helpful for this purpose.

2) Problems of changing markets - When traders have had consistent success, but suddenly lose money with consistency, a reasonable hypothesis is that markets have changed and what once was an edge no longer is profitable. This happened to many momentum traders after the late 1990s bull market, and it also has been the case for many scalpers after volatility came out of the stock indices. Here the challenge is to remake one's trading, either by retaining the core strategy and seeking other markets with opportunity or by finding new strategies for one's market. The answer to these problems is to reduce your trading size and re-enter a learning curve to become acquainted with new markets and methods. Figuring out how you learned the markets initially will help you identify steps you need to take to relearn new patterns. 

3) Situational emotional problems - These are emotional stresses that are recent in origin and that interfere with decision making and performance. Some of these stresses might pertain to trading, such as frustration after a slump or loss. Some might stem from one's personal life, as in a relationship breakup or increased financial pressures due to a new home or child. Very often these problems create performance anxieties by putting the making of money ahead of the placing of good trades. The answer to these problems is to seek out short-term counseling to help you gain perspective on the problems and cope with them effectively. 

4) Ongoing emotional problems - These are emotional patterns that predate trading and that show up in areas of life apart from trading. They include depression, anxiety, anger, attention deficits, and substance abuse. Such problems skew how people experience themselves and the world and lead to biases in processing information. As a result, it is difficult to trade (and manage risk) with consistency. The answer to these problems is to seek out competent professional help from a licensed psychologist or psychiatrist, including (possibly) counseling and medication assistance.

The important point is that not all trading problems are psychological in nature. Sometimes we need to work on the markets, sometimes we need to work on ourselves, and sometimes we need to do both. But first of all, we need to identify what our problems are. If you seek help for your trading concerns, make sure you do so from an individual who is experienced in both trading and psychology. If people only possess hammers, they'll treat you like a nail. You want mentors who possess multiple tools and who can design the kind of help that will be right for you.

For the trader, as the physician, diagnosing problems is the first step toward cure.

18-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 18/11/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New Low on 18/11/2013

Quote for the day

"Success in trading means an excess of profits over losses. Success in the investment field means more good than bad investments. If any one tells you he can be almost invariably successful, put him down as trying to impose on your credulity." -  Richard D. Wyckoff

Friday, 15 November 2013

15-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

15/11/2013 - Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 15/11/2013

Quote for the day

"A trading philosophy is something that cannot just be transferred from one person to another, it's something that you have to acquire yourself through time and effort." - Richard Driehaus

10 Things Traders Confuse with Success

Many new traders deceive themselves. They celebrate small wins. They look for the magic solution to making money through a fail safe system. They believe a seminar or newsletter will change their life completely. The mistake trading for easy money and coaches and gurus for having that secret recipe for success. 

Well, there is none, there is simply trading robust methodologies that have an edge, while managing risk, and keeping the right mindset. Trading can be a very fruitful endeavor, but new traders need to quit looking to be given fish and learn to fish for their self

Don't confuse these 10 things with trading success. New traders need to understand the difference between having a tug on their fishing line and having a boat full of fish.

01. It is not the winning trading system that determines your trading success but your ability to follow it.

02. It is not the big wins that make you rich but your ability to keep them and not give them back in losses.

03. Reading great trading books will not help you unless you read the right ones and really practice their lessons.

04. Mentors will not help you unless you follow their advice.

05. All the training to trade will do you know good unless you put it into action in your account.

06. A great methodology will do you no good if you do not have great risk management.

07. Small winning trades will not make you profitable if you have big losses.

08. Capturing bull market trends make no difference if you give back your profits in the next bear market.

09. A 95% win rate does you no good if your 5% of trades that are losses are bigger than the 95% that are winners.

10. Participating in social media does traders no good if they follow the wrong people and are in the wrong trading groups.

Thursday, 14 November 2013

14-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 14/11/2013 - Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 14/11/2013

QTD and YTD Country Stock Market Returns

Below is a look at the quarter-to-date and year-to-date performance numbers (local currency) for the stock markets of 76 countries around the world.  So far this quarter, the average country on the list is up 2.53%, while the average country is up 12.84% year-to-date.  Of the 76 countries, 61 are in the green for the year, while the remaining 15 are down.
As shown, Argentina and Dubai have posted the biggest gains in 2013 at 86.39% and 72.61%, respectively.  Japan ranks fourth on the list with a gain of 40.34%, putting it first among G7 countries.  With a gain of 11.42% so far this quarter, Greece is now up 24.45% year-to-date, putting it just ahead of the US at 23.74%.  Germany ranks third among the G7 countries with a YTD gain of 19.23%, followed by France (17.1%), Italy (16.8%) and the UK (14%).  Canada has been the worst performing G7 country so far in 2013 with a gain of 7.37%.
While most "developed" and "emerging" markets have done well in 2013, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have lagged.  Of the BRICs, only India's stock market is in the green for the year, and it's up just 4.4%.  Russia is down 5.88%, China is down 6.27%, and Brazil is down 15%.  Only Peru has done worse than Brazil in 2013 with a decline of 23%.

Quote for the day

“Whenever a trader says 'I wish,' or 'I hope,' he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.” - Bruce Kovner

Wednesday, 13 November 2013

13-Nov-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 13/11/2013 - Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 13/11/2013