Tuesday, 31 December 2013

31-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 31/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 31/12/2013

Quote for the day

“Good traders know that opportunistic speculation is a process. Ignore any one single outcome, focus on the methodology that can consistently avoid catastrophic losses, manage risk, preserve capital. A good process can be replicated, a random spin of the wheel cannot.” - Barry Ritholtz

Monday, 30 December 2013

30-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 30/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 30/12/2013

CSE Listed Companies - Public Holding

Quote for the day

"When one door closes, another opens. But we often look so long and so regretfully at the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us." - Alexander Graham Bell

Saturday, 28 December 2013

Some Important Lessons I’ve Learned

Extracted from Article written by Adam Grimes (Author of  'The art and science of technical analysis')
I saw so many people struggling, and witnessed so many abuses in so many forums, that I wanted to try to put down the lessons and truths I had found in a concrete format. True, there is no one way to trade, and many different approaches can be successful in the market, so long as they are aligned with some fundamental truths. These are some of those fundamental and undeniable truths, as I have come to understand them over the course of my trading career:
  • Most of the time, markets are very close to efficient (in the academic sense of the word.) This means that most of the time, price movement is random and we have no reason, from a technical perspective, to be involved in those markets.

  • There are, however, repeatable patterns in prices. This is the good news; it means we can make money using technical tools to trade.

  • The biases and statistical edges provided by these patterns are very, very small. This is the bad news; it means that it is exceedingly difficult to make money trading. We must be able to identify those points where markets are something a little “less than random” and where there might be a statistical edge present, and then put on trades in very competitive markets.

  • Technical trading is nothing more than a statistical game. The parallels to gambling and other games of chance are very, very close. A technical trader simply identifies the patterns where an edge might be present, takes the correct position at the correct time, and manages the risk in the trade. This is, of course, a very simplified summary of the trading process, but it is useful to see things from this perspective. This is the essence of trading: find the pattern, put on the trade, manage the risk, and take profits.

  • Because all we are doing is playing the small edges as they occur in the markets, it is important to be utterly consistent in every aspect of our trading. Many markets have gotten harder (i.e. more efficient, more of the time) over the past decade and things that once worked no longer work. Iron discipline is a key component of successful trading. If you are not disciplined every time, every moment of your interaction with the market, do not say you are disciplined.

  • It is possible to trade effectively as a purely systematic trader or as a discretionary trader, but the more discretion is involved the more the trader himself is a key part of the trading process. It can be very difficult to sort out performance issues that are caused by markets, by natural statistical fluctuations, by the trading system not working, or by the trader himself.

  • There is still a tremendous bias in many circles toward fundamental analysis and against technical analysis. The fundamentalists have a facile argument because it is easy to point to patterns on charts, say they are absurd, and point out that markets are actually driven by supply, demand and fundamental factors—the very elements that fundamental analysis deals with directly. However, many times the element of art involved in fundamental analysis is overlooked. How much does your valuation change if your discount rate is off by a percentage point? How dependent is your model on your assessment of some manager’s CapEx decisions in year 4? Do you really have a good sense of how the company’s competitive position will evolve with the industry over the next decade? Does everyone else? There’s a lot more “wiggle room” in fundamentals than most people realize.

  • One advantage of technical trading is that, done properly, it clearly identifies supply/demand imbalances from their effect on prices. This is a form of look-back analysis, but good technical tools force you to deal with the reality of what is happening right now. There is no equivocation, wishing, or emotional involvement in solid technical trading. The best risk management tools are technical, or are based on patterns in prices themselves.

  • Most people (and funds) who try to trade will not be successful, and I believe this is because most of them are simply trying to do things that do not work. Taking a good, hard look at your tools, methods, and approach can be scary, but there is no other way to find enduring success in the market.

Friday, 27 December 2013

27-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 27/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 27/12/2013

Quote for the day

"If the market's behavior seems mysterious to you, it's because your own behavior is mysterious and unmanageable. You can't really determine what the market is likely to do next when you don't even know what you'll do next." -  Mark Douglas

A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor studies the ocean

We come to the market from different walks of life and bring with us the mental baggage of our upbringing and prior experiences. Most of us find that when we act in the market the way we do in our everyday life, we lose money.
Your success or failure in the market depends on your thoughts and feelings. It depends on your attitudes toward gain and risk, fear and greed, and on how you handle the excitement of trading and risk.
Most of all, your success or failure depends on your ability to use your intellect rather than act out your emotions. A trader who feels overjoyed when he wins and depressed when he loses cannot accumulate equity because he is controlled by his emotions. If you let the market make you feel high or low, you will lose money.
To be a winner in the market you must know yourself and act coolly and responsibly. The pain of losing scares people into looking for magic meth­ods. At the same time, they discard much of what is useful in their professional or business backgrounds.
Like an Ocean
The market is like an ocean - it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy a stock and it explodes in a rally. You may feel drenched with fear when you go short but the market rises and your equity melts with every uptick. These feelings have nothing to do with the market-they exist only inside you.
The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.
The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feel­ings rather than intellect control your behavior.
A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful sailor uses his intelligence.
An ocean can be useful -you can fish in it and use its surface to get to other islands. An ocean can be dangerous - you can drown in it. The more rational your approach, the more likely you are to get what you want. When you act out your emotions, you cannot focus on the reality of the ocean.
A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor studies the ocean. He must trade on a small scale while learning to handle himself in the market. You can never control the market but you can learn to control yourself.
A beginner who has a string of profitable trades often feels he can walk on water. He starts taking wild risks and blows up his account. On the other hand, an amateur who takes several losses in a row often feels so demoralized that he cannot place an order even when his system gives him a strong signal to buy or sell. If trading makes you feel elated or frightened, you cannot fully use your intellect. When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you'll miss profitable trades.
A professional trader uses his head and stays calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades. Emotional reactions are a luxury that you cannot afford in the markets.
Emotional Trading
Most people crave excitement and entertainment. Singers, actors, and professional athletes command much higher incomes in our society than do such mundane workmen as physicians, pilots, or college professors. People love to have their nerves tickled - they buy lottery tickets, fly to Las Vegas, and slow down to gawk at road accidents.
Trading is a heady experience and can be very addictive. Losers who drop money in the markets receive a tremendous entertainment value.
The market is among the most entertaining places on the face of the Earth. It is a spectator sport and a participant sport rolled into one. Imagine going to a major-league ball game in which you are not confined to the bleachers. For a few hundred dollars you can run onto the field and join the game. If you hit the ball right, you will get paid like a professional.
You would probably think twice before running onto the field the first few times. This cautious attitude is responsible for the well-known "beginner's luck." Once a beginner hits the ball well a few times and collects his pay, he is likely to get the idea that he is better than the pros and could make a good living at it. Greedy amateurs start running out onto the field too often, even when there are no good playing opportunities. Before they know what hit them, a short string of losses destroys their careers.
Emotional decisions are lethal in the markets. You can see a good model of emotional trading by going to a racetrack, turning around, and watching the humans instead of the horses. Gamblers stomp their feet, jump up and down, and yell at horses and jockeys. Thousands of people act out their emotions. Winners embrace and losers tear up their tickets in disgust. The joy, the pain, and the intensity of wishful thinking are caricatures of what happens in the markets. A cool handicapper who tries to make a living at the track does not get excited, yell, or bet the bulk of his roll on any race.
Casinos love drunk patrons. They pour gamblers free drinks because drunks are more emotional and gamble more. Casinos try to throw out intel­ligent card-counters. There is less free liquor on Wall Street than in a casino, but at least here they do not throw you out of the game for being a good trader.
In Charge of Your Life
When a monkey hurts its foot on a tree stump, he flies into a rage and kicks the piece of wood. You laugh at a monkey, but do you laugh at yourself when you act like him? If the market drops while you are long, you may double up on your losing trade or else go short, trying to get even. You act emotionally instead of using your intellect. What is the difference between a trader trying to get back at the market and a monkey kicking a tree stump? Acting out of anger, fear, or elation destroys your chance of
success. You have to analyze your behavior in the market instead of acting out your feelings.
We get angry at the market, we become afraid of it, we develop silly superstitions. All the while, the market keeps cycling through its rallies and declines like an ocean going through its storms and calm periods. Mark Douglas writes in The Disciplined Trader that in the market, "There is no beginning, middle, or end - only what you create in your own mind. Rarely do any of us grow up learning to operate in an arena that allows for complete freedom of creative expression, with no external structure to restrict it in any way."
We try to cajole or manipulate the market, acting like the ancient emperor Xerxes, who ordered his soldiers to horsewhip the sea for sinking his fleet. Most of us are not aware how manipulative we are, how we bargain, how we act out our feelings in the market. Most of us consider ourselves the center of the universe and expect every person or group to be either good or bad to us. This does not work in the market which is completely impersonal.
Leston Havens, a Harvard University psychiatrist, writes: "Cannibalism and slavery are probably the oldest manifestations of human predation and submission. Although both are now discouraged, their continued existence in psychological forms demonstrates that civilization has achieved great success in moving from the concrete and physical to the abstract and psychological, while persisting in the same purposes." Parents threaten their children, bullies hit them, teachers try to bend their will in school. Little wonder that most of us grow up either hiding in a shell or learning how to manipulate others in self-defense. Acting independently does not feel natural to us-but that is the only way to succeed in the market.
Douglas warns, "If the market's behavior seems mysterious to you, it's because your own behavior is mysterious and unmanageable. You can't really determine what the market is likely to do next when you don't even know what you'll do next." Ultimately, "the one thing you can control is yourself. As a trader, you have the power either to give yourself money or to give your money to other traders." He adds, "The traders who can make money consistently . . . approach trading from the perspective of a mental discipline."
Each trader has his own demons to exorcise on the journey to becoming a successful professional. Here are several rules that worked for me as I grew from a wild amateur into an erratic semiprofessional and finally into a professional trader. You may change this list to suit your personality.
•  Decide that you are in the market for the long haul -that is, you want to be a trader even 20 years from now.
•  Learn as much as you can. Read and listen to experts, but keep a degree of healthy skepticism about everything. Ask questions, and do not accept experts at their word.
•  Do not get greedy and rush to trade - take your time to learn. The mar­kets will be there with more good opportunities in the months and years ahead.
•  Develop a method for analyzing the market-that is, "If A happens, then B is likely to happen." Markets have many dimensions-use sev­eral analytic methods to confirm trades. Test everything on historical data and then in the markets, using real money. Markets keep chang­ing-you need different tools for trading bull and bear markets and transitional periods as well as a method for telling the difference.
•  Develop a money management plan. Your first goal must be long-term survival; your second goal, a steady growth of capital; and your third goal, making high profits. Most traders put the third goal first and are unaware that goals 1 and 2 exist.
•  Be aware that a trader is the weakest link in any trading system. Go to a meeting of Alcoholics Anonymous to learn how to avoid losses or develop your own method for cutting out impulsive trades.
•  Winners think, feel, and act differently than losers. You must look within yourself, strip away your illusions, and change your old ways of being, thinking, and acting. Change is hard, but if you want to be a professional trader, you have to work on changing your personality.
Source: http://bivib.com

Thursday, 26 December 2013

Gold Faces a Volatile Road Downward in 2014 For These Key Reasons

- Gold has posted its first annual decline in 13 years

- We see key fundamental headwinds that may put further pressure on gold prices

- Technical studies suggest XAUUSD may continue recent losses

We've argued since the beginning of the year that gold was positioned for weakness as the fundamental drivers of investment demand receded. Gold's appeal is that of an alternative store of value, sought at times when inflation threatens to debauch paper currency or a major crisis undermines structural confidence in financial markets.

Anchored price growth expectations in the face of aggressive monetary stimulus and ebbing fears of another global market shakeout left gold without fundamental support on either front. Prices responded as expected, dropping over 26 percent so far this year. Looking ahead, a broadly unchanged thematic backdrop argues for more of the same.

Gold Prices Tracking Inflation Expectations

On the inflation front, 2013 proved to be the year when investors let go of the notion that global stimulus efforts were doomed to imminently unleash runaway inflation. Indeed, global price growth expectations (as tracked by a Bloomberg survey of economists) persistently declined despite the introduction of “Abenomics” in Japan and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive $85 billion/month asset purchase effort through its “QE3” program.
The outlook for the first quarter of 2014 looks less forgiving still. Most notably, the Fed is preparing to “taper” the size of its stimulus effort. While speculation about the precise timing of the first cutback has produced considerable volatility and looks likely to continue to do so, the overall trajectory of FOMC policy appears to be firmly in place. US economic data has increasingly outperformed relative to market forecasts since the beginning of November. Meanwhile, bond markets have started to price out disinflation, with the 1-year breakeven rate (a measure of the price growth outlook as reflected in Treasury yields) surging in late November to the highest level since mid-April.

Elsewhere, most of the major central banks are in wait-and-see mode. The BOJ is likely to wait to assess the impact of the sales tax increase due in April before contemplating additional stimulus. The BOE is flirting with the enviable problem of having its policy objectives met sooner than expected. The SNB, BOC and the RBA are on hold while the RBNZ is actively aiming to tighten. That leaves just the ECB on the overtly dovish side of the outlook spectrum. Needless to say, this bodes ill for anti-fiat gold demand.

Gold Unlikely to Find Support from “Tail” Risk

After the Great Recession, the Eurozone debt crisis looked like the likeliest source of structural market instability.That risk has since receded. A Bloomberg gauge tracking financial conditions in the currency bloc now stands at highest level in over six years, pointing to a lack of meaningful funding stress.

Elsewhere, a sharp jump in the 5-year US credit-default swap (CDS) spread reflected jitters surrounding the debate to raise the so-called “debt ceiling” and subsequent government shutdown. As we wrote in our outlook for the fourth quarter however, this didn’t prove lasting. The shutdown turned out to be too much of a political albatross for everyone involved and a deal was struck to end it just two weeks after it began. The 5-year CDS rate turned dutifully lower, dropping over 27 percent from October’s peak. Since then, US lawmakers have secured a two-year budget deal that seems to ensure that another such episode will not transpire in the near term.

Gold Volatility Likely But Weakness Broadly Favored

The markets continue to respondto eroding fundamental support for gold prices. Data compiled by Bloomberg suggests that total known bullion holdings in gold ETFs fell30.9 percent year-to-date in 2013,bringing them to the lowest level since November 2009 and underscoring eroding investment demand.

Markets don’t move in straight lines, however. That means that some seesaw price action is almost certainty in the cards, especially as markets adjust to changes in the Fed’s policy mix. Still, as fears of US Dollar dilution dissipate along with the size of the QE program and “tail” risks fade, the desire to hold an alternative-value hedge ought to decline as well. This should keep rallies well-capped and maintain overall structural down trend firmly in place into 2014.

Gold Has Room to Bounce But Larger Trend Points Lower

Gold Weekly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

From a technical perspective, gold is set to post its first annual decline in thirteen years and the broader drop following the break below a multi-year triangle formation in April of this year remains in focus. Although the larger trend remains weighted to the downside, near-term metrics suggest the yellow metal is at risk for a correction higher heading into 1Q if prices mount the $1268/70 resistance range. That level represents the confluence of multiple Fibonacci ratios and has served as a clear pivot in price dating back to 2010.

Interim support rests at $1209, with a break below this level targeting more critical support at $1179/80. This level represents the confluence of the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the decline off the August highs and the yearly low made back in late-June. Note that daily momentum has continued to respect trend line resistance dating back to the August highs. A breach and subsequent break above the 50-threshold would suggest a substantial correction higher may be in the works. It is also important to keep in mind that cyclically speaking, gold tends to perform well into the year-end with the 2014 opening range likely to offer further clarity on whether a rebound is on the cards early next year. Bottom line: gold remains at risk sub-$1268/70, with a break higher shifting our near-term focus to the topside with resistance targets eyed at $1286, $1305 and $1325. Look for a break and close below the yearly low to put the broader down trend back into focus, with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support targets at $1151-1160, $1125 and $1091.

Written by Ilya Spivak and Michael Boutros, Currency Strategists for DailyFX.com

26-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 26/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 26/12/2013

Quote for the day

"It's better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret." - Jackie Joyner-Kersee

Wednesday, 25 December 2013

The Buffett Formula — How To Get Smarter


“The best thing a human being can do is to help another human being know more.” — Charlie Munger
“Go to bed smarter than when you woke up.” — Charlie Munger
Most people go though life not really getting any smarter. Why? They simply won’t do the work required.
It’s easy to come home, sit on the couch, watch TV and zone out until bed time rolls around. But that’s not really going to help you get smarter.
Sure you can go into the office the next day and discuss the details of last night’s episode of Mad Men or Game of Thrones. And, yes, you know what happened on Survivor. But that’s not knowledge accumulation, it’s a mind-numbing sedative.
But you can acquire knowledge if you want it.
In fact there is a simple formula, which if followed is almost certain to make you smarter over time. Simple but not easy.
It involves a lot of hard work.
We’ll call it the Buffett formula, named after Warren Buffett and his longtime business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger. These two are an extraordinary combination of minds. They are also learning machines.
“I can see, he can hear. We make a great combination.” — Warren Buffett, speaking of his partner and friend, Charlie Munger.
We can learn a lot from them. They didn't get smart because they are both billionaires. No, in fact they became billionaires, in part, because they are smart. More importantly, they keep getting smarter. And it turns out that they have a lot to say on the subject.
How to get smarter
Read. A lot.
Warren Buffett says, “I just sit in my office and read all day.”
What does that mean? He estimates that he spends 80% of his working day reading and thinking.
“You could hardly find a partnership in which two people settle on reading more hours of the day than in ours,” Charlie Munger commented.
When asked how to get smarter, Buffett once held up stacks of paper and said “read 500 pages like this every day. That’s how knowledge builds up, like compound interest.”
All of us can build our knowledge but most of us won’t put in the effort.
One person who took Buffett’s advice, Todd Combs, now works for the legendary investor. After hearing Buffett talk he started keeping track of what he read and how many pages he was reading.
The Omaha World-Herald writes:
Eventually finding and reading productive material became second nature, a habit. As he began his investing career, he would read even more, hitting 600, 750, even 1,000 pages a day.
Combs discovered that Buffett’s formula worked, giving him more knowledge that helped him with what became his primary job — seeking the truth about potential investments.
But how you read matters too.
You need to be critical and always thinking. You need to do the mental work required to hold an opinion.
In Working tougher: Why Great Partnerships Succeed Buffett comments to author Michael Eisner:
Look, my job is essentially just corralling more and more and more facts and information, and occasionally seeing whether that leads to some action. And Charlie—his children call him a book with legs.
Continuous learning
Eisner continues:
Maybe that’s why both men agree it’s better that they never lived in the same city, or worked in the same office. They would have wanted to talk all the time, leaving no time for the reading, which Munger describes as part of an essential continuing education program for the men who run one of the largest conglomerates in the world.
“I don’t think any other twosome in business was better at continuous learning than we were,” he says, talking in the past tense but not really meaning it. “And if we hadn’t been continuous learners, the record wouldn’t have been as good. And we were so extreme about it that we both spent the better part of our days reading, so we could learn more, which is not a common pattern in business.”
It doesn’t work how you think it works.
If you’re thinking they sit in front of a computer all day obsessing over numbers and figures? You’d be dead wrong.
““No,” says Warren. “We don't read other people's opinions. We want to get the facts, and then think.” And when it gets to the thinking part, for Buffett and Munger, there’s no one better to think with than their partners. “Charlie can't encounter a problem without thinking of an answer,” posits Warren. “He has the best thirty-second mind I've ever seen. I’ll call him up, and within thirty seconds, he’ll grasp it. He just sees things immediately.”
Munger sees his knowledge accumulation as an acquired, rather than natural, genius. And he’d give all the credit to the studying he does.
“Neither Warren nor I is smart enough to make the decisions with no time to think,” Munger once told a reporter. “We make actual decisions very rapidly, but that’s because we’ve spent so much time preparing ourselves by quietly sitting and reading and thinking.”
How can you find time to read?
Finding the time to read is easier than you think. One way to help make that happen is to carve an hour out of your day just for yourself.
In an interview he gave for his authorized biography The Snowball, Buffett told the story:
Charlie, as a very young lawyer, was probably getting $20 an hour. He thought to himself, ‘Who's my most valuable client?’ And he decided it was himself. So he decided to sell himself an hour each day. He did it early in the morning, working on these construction projects and real estate deals. Everybody should do this, be the client, and then work for other people, too, and sell yourself an hour a day.
It's important to think about the opportunity cost of this hour. On one hand you can check twitter, read some online news, and reply to a few emails while pretending to finish the memo that is supposed to be the focus of your attention. On the other hand, you can dedicate the time to improving yourself. In the short term, you're better off with the dopamine laced rush of email and twitter while multitasking. In the long term, the investment in learning something new and improving yourself goes further.
“I have always wanted to improve what I do,“ Munger comments “even if it reduces my income in any given year. And I always set aside time so I can play my own self-amusement and improvement game.”
Reading is only part of the equation.
But reading isn’t enough. Charlie Munger offers:
We read a lot. I don't know anyone who's wise who doesn't read a lot. But that’s not enough: You have to have a temperament to grab ideas and do sensible things. Most people don't grab the right ideas or don’t know what to do with them
Commenting on what it means to have knowledge, in How To Read A Book, Mortimer Adler writes: “The person who says he knows what he thinks but cannot express it usually does not know what he thinks.”
Can you explain what you know to someone else? Try it. Pick an idea you think you have a grasp of and write it out on a sheet of paper as if you were explaining it to someone else. 
Nature or Nurture?
Another way to get smarter, outside of reading, is to surround yourself with people who are not afraid to challenge your ideas.
“Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day.” — Charlie Munger

Tuesday, 24 December 2013

24-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 24/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 24/12/2013

C.R.E.A.T.E. your trading goals

Do you currently set goals for successful day trading or in fact for any type of trading?

How is that working out for you?

It is all very well setting goals but you need to make sure that you have some parameters around how you set your goals, in order for them to work for you.

As a trader you will want to have a trading plan and also goals that will come from working that plan. These will include financial and education goals around your trading and it is also a good idea to put in your personal, fitness and relationship goals as these have a huge bearing on your success as a trader. The better you are holistically, the better trader you become.

Following is a proven model for successful goal setting:

1. Concise - ensure that your goal statement is simple and easy for both your conscious and unconscious mind to understand and then act upon.

2. Realistic - when a goal is relatively easy for you to accept and is not too much of a leap from where you are currently, the unconscious mind can work with that and start having you put things in order for this to become a reality. E.g. If you are currently losing money in the market, it could be too big a jump for your unconscious mind if your first financial target goal was to make $1 million in the next 6 weeks. It could be far more effective to set this at $10,000.

3. Ecological - the execution of all goals needs to be safe to yourself and safe for others. This is just a step to ensure that what needs to happen does not include any possible harm coming to yourself, any other person, animal or the planet. I think you get the picture.

4. As now - always have your goal stated as if you have already achieved it. Nothing is more powerful for your unconscious mind than to have every part of you feel that the achieving of this goal has already happened.

5. Timed and toward what you want - attach a time frame to your goal statement. Think about a realistic time frame that you can expect to work with this goal and always make the statement towards what you want not away from what you don't want. You will see in the following goal statement example how to best do this.

6. End Step/Evidence - you will need to ask yourself ' What will I be doing when I have achieved this goal that will mean I KNOW that it has happened?' What do you have to see, hear or feel in order to know?

So, get busy and C.R.E.A.T.E. your trading goals from the process above

Edited Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com

CSE - 2013 Dividend Payment at a glance

Quote for the day

“In bull markets, people have faith; in bear markets, doubt. The other way around might be more profitable.”- James Grant

Monday, 23 December 2013

23-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 23/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 23/12/2013

Quote for the day

“Conventional thinking, particularly around important turning points, is usually not very helpful because it tends to focus on the extrapolation of past trends into the future.”
- Tony Boekh

Saturday, 21 December 2013

2013 Country Stock Market Performance


There are now just nine trading days left in 2013, so below is an updated look at the year-to-date performance (local currency) of the stock markets for 76 countries around the world.  
The average year-to-date change of the 76 countries highlighted is currently just above 12%.  Of the 76 countries, 57 are up (75%) in 2013 and 19 are down (25%).  The UAE has posted the biggest gains YTD, while Japan is up the most of any G7 country.  With a gain of 25.07%, the US ranks right up near the top of the list in 13th place.  Not bad for the largest country by market cap in the world!  Germany ranks third among G7 countries with a YTD gain of 19.35%, followed by France (11.74%), Italy (10.15%) and the UK (9.98%).  At the bottom of the barrel in the G7 is Canada with a 2013 gain of 6.28%.
While 2013 has been a banner year for many countries, the emerging market BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) have had a rough go of it.  India is the best performer of the BRICs with a YTD gain of just 6.1%.  The other three BRICs are in the red.  China is down 5.2%, Russia is down 7.37% and Brazil is down 17.82%.  Brazil ranks second-to-last behind Peru, which is down 24.09%.  Brazil has two huge events in the years ahead with the World Cup in 2014 and the Summer Olympics in 2016.  So far investors have done nothing but sell leading up to these events.
Source: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/

Friday, 20 December 2013

Top 200 Secrets of Success

Here is List of The Top 200 Secrets of Success and the Pillars of Self-Mastery suggested by Robin S. Sharma who is The Author of the bestseller 'The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari'.

1. Sleep less. This is one of the best investments you can make to make your life more productive and rewarding. Most people do not need more than 6 hours to maintain an excellent state of health. Try getting up one hour earlier for 21 days and it will develop into a powerful habit. Remember, it is the quality not the quantity of sleep that is important. And just imagine having an extra 30 hours a month to spend on the things that are important to you.

2. Set aside one hour every morning for personal development matters. Meditate, visualize your day, read inspirational texts to set the tone of your day, listen to motivational tapes or read great literature. Take this quiet period to vitalize and energize your spirit for the productive day ahead. Watch the sun rise once a week or be with nature. Starting the day off well is a powerful strategy for self-renewal and personal effectiveness.

20-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 20/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 20/12/2013

Quote for the day

“Gut feel is very important. I don't know of any great professional trader that doesn't have it. Being a successful trader also takes courage: the courage to try, the courage to fail, the courage to succeed, and the courage to keep on going when the going gets tough.” - Michael Marcus

Thursday, 19 December 2013

19-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 19/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 19/12/2013

Quote for the day

“Predicting the stock market is really predicting how other investors will change estimates they are now making with all their best efforts. This means that, for a market forecaster to be right, the consensus of all others must be wrong and the forecaster must determine in which direction-up or down-the market will be moved by changes in the consensus of those same active investors.” -  Burton G. Malkiel, The Elements of Investing

10 Enemies of Personal Greatness

Beware! These ten inner enemies can quickly erode your grandest plans and your noblest intentions. They can drain your life of passion and potential, and fill your spirit with lifelong regret.

1. Always taking the path of least resistance. – Just because you are struggling does NOT mean you are failing. Every great success requires some kind of struggle to get there. Good things don’t come to those who wait. Good things come to those who work hard and struggle to pursue the goals and dreams they believe in. 
Read The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.

2. Comparing yourself to everyone else. – You will never fully believe in yourself if you keep comparing yourself to everyone else. Being true to yourself in thoughts, words and actions is as important as being kind and true to others.

3. Worrying too much about what others think of you. – As long as you are worried about what others think of you, you are owned by them. Only when you require no approval from outside yourself can you own yourself. If you’re being true to yourself and it isn’t enough for the people around you, change the people around you.

4. Ignoring your gut instincts. – There’s a difference between being agreeable and agreeing to everything. Give yourself permission to immediately walk away from anything that gives you bad vibes. There is no need to explain or make sense of it. Just trust the little inner voice when it’s telling you, “This is a bad idea.”

5. Holding on when you need to move on. – Moving on doesn't mean forgetting, it means you choose happiness over hurt. Sometimes you have to love people from a distance and give them the space and time to get their minds right before you let them back into your life.

6. Living in the past. – If you don’t leave your past in the past, it will destroy your future. Live for what today has to offer, not for what yesterday has taken away. Life is a journey that is only traveled once. Today’s moments quickly become tomorrow’s memories. So appreciate every moment for what it is, because the greatest gift of life is life itself. 
Read The Power of Now.

7. Doing the wrong things just because others are too. – Wrong is wrong, even if everyone is doing it. Right is right, even if you are the only one doing it. Always do what you know in your heart is right, for you.

8. Allowing small problems to overwhelm you. – Everything is going to be alright; maybe not today but eventually. When you’re upset, ask yourself, “Will this matter to me in a year’s time?” Most of the time it won’t. Remember, sometimes bad things in life open up your eyes to the good things you weren’t paying attention to before.

9. Surrendering to the draw of comfort. – The most common and harmful addiction in the world is the draw of comfort. Why pursue greatness when you’ve already got 324 channels and a recliner? Just pass the chip dip and forget about your grand plans. NO! The truth is growth begins at the end of your comfort zone. Stepping outside of your comfort zone will put things into perspective from an angle you can’t grasp now, and open doors of opportunity that would otherwise not exist. 
Read The Power of Habit.

10. NOT believing that you CAN. – If we don’t know that greatness is possible, we won’t bother attempting it. All too often, we literally do not know any better than good enough. Sometimes you have to try to do what you think you can’t do, so you realize that you actually CAN. And sometimes it takes more than one attempt. If ‘Plan A’ doesn’t work out, don’t fret; the alphabet has another 25 letters that would be happy to give you a chance to get it right. The wrong choices usually bring us to the right places, eventually. But you must believe in your own potential to get there.

Wednesday, 18 December 2013

18-Dec-2013 CSE Trade Summary

Crossings - 18/12/2013 & Top 10 Contributors to Change ASPI

Following Stocks Reached New High / Low on 18/12/2013


How to Nail Down Your Profits: 20 Questions for a Disciplined Approach

by Donald Cassidy

To be successful, an investment must not only be bought well, but also sold right.
Until sale occurs, the apparent outcome is merely a tentative, paper result. A handsome profit can wither at any moment (due to sudden bad news or a market meltdown) until it is actually nailed down.
Properly, much attention is given to studying what to buy, but woefully inadequate energy is devoted to the hold/sell decision. Ironically this is backward, since dollars already invested are at more risk (and so deserve more attention) than cash not yet invested.
In this article, I’ll discuss how you can implement a discipline to your decisions on whether and when to sell. This is not the usual advice to use stop-loss orders or trim positions to restore intended allocation percentages. Rather, this approach focuses your plans for an exit strategy from the moment you enter a particular position—in an effort to overcome inertia and produce advantageous, coolly implemented exits.
Buying and holding reduces costs and taxes. But this approach assumes two critical points:
  • First, that what was bought in fact was a wise and well-priced choice and,
  • Second, that it continues to have unchanged virtue and value.
Given that we are fallible human beings and that the world constantly changes, both key pillars of long-term holding are logically fragile.
Once a stock is bought, two powerful but dangerous forces accost us. One is inertia, sometimes driven by busy lives and often induced by knowing that perfect results will be elusive no matter how hard we work at the investing craft.
The second deadly force putting capital at risk is ego: You can fall too much in love with your winners (which make you feel very smart), and turn away from problems that attack your self image in the hope that time will heal your wounds.
Too often, innocently intended buy-and-hold positions insidiously become groundless buy-and-“hope” positions. Holding is recommitting your funds for tomorrow without paying a buy commission.
The point is that the term “buy-and-hold” doesn't mean hold forever; even long-term investors eventually must sell in order for their positions to be successful. Using a disciplined sell approach, you need to start thinking about this issue sooner rather than later. And the best way to implement this is by using a checklist —a list of 20 questions you need to answer about each of the positions you own.
First Steps: Assess the Climate
Before you confront the proposed checklist of questions designed to impose discipline and thus better shape your sell decisions, you should first assess the relevant prevailing investment climate. Realistic observations here will create a helpful directional bias regarding holding vs. selling the individual position.
For example, when reviewing a bond or bond fund, or an interest-sensitive stock like a preferred, utility, or REIT, you must assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates. If inflation is kicking up, if interest rates domestically and worldwide are rising, or if the Fed is signaling tightening moves, the major tide is running against your position, so your bias should be toward selling rather than holding.
As for stocks, if the economy is shaky, if the broad market has lately made lower lows rather than higher highs, if the company’s industry is becoming troubled—or if the market is extremely buoyant as in late 1999—again the big picture is signaling that, in an otherwise indifferent situation, your leaning should be toward a sale over holding. Conversely, more favorable prevailing major conditions would signal a beginning bias toward holding, before you examine the specifics of the particular stock.
How to Use the Checklist
As with exercises in self-help books on any subject, in order to be truly useful this questionnaire needs actually to be filled in—and in real time:
  • Each stock gets its own separate page, so make some blank photocopies in advance.
  • Keep these in a three-ring notebook over time, including beyond when individual sales have been completed. That creates a highly useful reference that can highlight patterns of strong or weak behaviors.
  • For convenience, separate the pages into two sections: Currently open positions in alphabetical order in the front (or in order of dates when they will approach 12-month holding status), followed by closed-out positions from latest to earliest in the back section.
At the risk of being less than kind to our forests, it really is useful to have pages for presently active positions in two or even three places: your workplace, from where broker conversations or on-line trading will take place; at home, near your PC where market studying and decision making tends to occur; and in your broker’s office if you still use a full-commission rep, so that he or she also might spend time thinking about these issues and be able to help you back onto the right path should there be any straying from coolly logical thinking (a way to “earn” his/her commissions!). Once positions actually are closed out, move pages to your master study location at home. How soon and how often should this exercise be conducted for each stock held?
  • You should start a new questionnaire and fill in the answers to Questions 1 through 5 immediately when a new stock is bought.
  • Depending on your typical turnover rate, it is advisable to create a tickler system so that you review each position no less frequently than 90 days from the buy date (or at the target sale date noted in Question 4, if that is sooner).
  • If the review results in a hold decision, file the page for re-review at the date in Question 11.
  • Investors who tend to hold for less than a year, or who have positions in very volatile issues, should do reviews routinely, perhaps at 30 days rather than 90.
The 20 important questions you need to answer are provided first with considerable details on how they should be answered; on page 16 a fill-in-the-blank questionnaire is provided so that you can copy and use it on your own. [You can also print the questionnaire from the on-line version of this article at AAII.com.]
Evaluating Your Answers
Written responses to all questions are strongly recommended, for two reasons:
  • The required discipline of thinking through the issues in detail, and
  • Creation of an archival record that can be used for later reference, comparison, and learning.
Start filling out the sheet without delay, by entering the stock or fund’s name and symbol and answering Questions 1 through 5 immediately when the buy order is executed. If you fill it in immediately, there will then be no need to search back for data for Questions 1 and 2 and, more significantly, there will be no fudging of responses to Questions 3 through 5. Later, after you have held the stock for several months, answer Questions 9 through 11 with your responses to Questions 3 through 5 covered up. At this point, you want a current assessment of your thinking, and if you merely copy your previous answers, it will render the exercise useless. The quality of your sell-vs.-hold decisions will be enhanced by the honesty and rigor with which you carry out this process.
Note that these questions include a built-in bias toward making one feel a bit defensive about holding a stock. This creates a presumption in favor of selling when things have not gone as planned (and especially so if the big-picture climate described earlier is negative).
If a holding is not working, that position needs to be fixed. Like underperforming employees, stocks not working need to be put on strict probation or fired without delay—not given lots of slack and hope.
If time has gone beyond the period indicated by your answer to Question 4 (the target sale date), or if the stock actually has traded at or above your sell target in Question 3, something has gone wrong with your plan or execution: lack of discipline.
If there are differences between the answers to Questions 3 through 5 as compared with those for 9 through 11, study them again for an implied corrective action.
An affirmative answer to Question 15 (have there been negative surprises?) or to either part of Question 16 (did you ever contemplate a sale but not go through with it?) indicates lack of decisiveness or consistency in dealing with this situation. Either greed asserted itself when things went well, or denial arose as events turned sour.
It is only human (but not profit-enhancing!) to shift ground or rationalize in an effort to be tolerant of the stock’s performance (one’s own judgment) or of one’s less-than-perfect strategy and execution. Learn from past strategy executions, and make a special effort to avoid falling into this pattern again. Continuing to do what is most comfortable will not improve results and is likely to hamper them. Focus on locking in financial gains, not on protecting a bruised ego.
The heart of the entire matter is Question 18, which is answered in one of your periodic reviews (with your updated knowledge, would you buy this stock now?).
If this cannot be answered “yes” with total honesty and enthusiastic conviction (use the subpart of Question 9 as an acid test), then stop this deteriorating process by selling.
If you would not buy today, how or why can you envision others doing so? If other investors cannot reasonably be expected to be buyers, such failure of sponsorship and support forecasts lower prices logically ahead. So why are you willing to hold in the face of that expectation?
Use of this questionnaire is not a guaranteed cure-all.
Nor will it make every position profitable.
But it will help impose closure on situations that are not working out as expected.
Use it to generate urgency by examining and overlaying the time value of money, and to remind you that a decision to hold should be an active and reasoned act of the mind instead of a lazy default.
‘Hold’ decisions should be every bit as deliberate as a choice to buy or to sell—minus only the need to telephone your broker or click your mouse on-line.
This questionnaire will serve as a reminder, guide, and prompting tool to sharpen decision-making skills and thereby improve sale executions. It will probably make you uncomfortable, especially at first. But as famous multi-step programs note, becoming unhappy with our present state is the first prerequisite for achieving positive change.
May a high percentage of your stock purchases become winners. But equally important, may you succeed in nailing down profits when they are available.

Edited Article from http://www.aaii.com