LSL Weekly Market Review 15th Mar 2013

Market opened on a positive note on Monday but the main index dropped after mid-day on retail selling. It’s assumed as a result of retail investors taking a cue from recent upward pressure on interest rates. News of Cargills/CT Holdings securing IFC backing for their bank failed to show a marked gain on their prices. ASI dropped 14.08 points (0.25%) and the S&P SL20 index gained 6.45 points (0.20%). Turnover was Rs. 557.0Mn.

On Tuesday, indices gained on the back of improved buying activity on blue-chips such as John Keells Holdings, Commercial Bank and Ceylon Tobacco Company. National Development Bank rose by around Rs. 3.00 on relatively thin volumes as investors expect a lump sum final dividend. Foreign buying on blue-chips has driven the market from last year’s low levels and we expect this trend to continue in the mid-term. ASI gained 27.01 points (0.48%) and the S&P SL20 index gained 17.90 points (0.55%). Turnover was Rs. 671.6Mn.

Retail selling prevailed on Wednesday although few blue-chips sought by foreigners gained marginally. John Keells Holdings and National Development Bank reached their 52-week highs of Rs. 239.00 and Rs. 157.00. Ceylon Tobacco Company saw another lackluster day with buying interest slowing. Yields on all treasuries rose by 5 basis points each which further illustrate the negative footing of retailers.  ASI lost 18.50 points (0.32%) and the S&P SL20 index lost 11.85 points (0.36%). Turnover was Rs. 447.0Mn.

A late surge in blue-chips helped to recover from mid-day losses on Thursday. John Keells Holdings and National Development Bank continued to improve their 52-week highs to Rs. 239.00 and Rs. 158.50 respectively. Few blue-chips are trading beyond their intrinsic values therefore we advise investors not to get into the herd instinct but stick to value investing. ASI gained 3.16 points (0.06%) and the S&P SL20 index gained 5.79 points (0.18%). Turnover was Rs. 609.2Mn.

Indices closed higher on Friday driven by gains on foreign-favourite blue-chips such as John Keells Holdings, Ceylon Tobacco Company and Commercial Bank. Meanwhile National Development Bank continued to rise on speculation of a large final dividend. However, retail counters seem to be losing interest amongst investors who seem to be looking for steady returns with blue-chips. ASI gained 15.55 points (0.27%) to close at 5,704.53 and the S&P SL20 index gained 21.41 points (0.66%) to close at 3,262.44. Turnover was Rs. 729.9Mn.

Top contributors to turnover were John Keells Holdings with Rs. 269.3Mn, Bukit Darah with Rs. 97.5Mn and National Development bank with Rs.  87.0Mn. Most active counters for the day were PC House which announced a 1:2 rights issue at Rs. 3.00, National Development Bank and John Keells Holdings.

Notable gainers for the day were Citrus Leisure warrant-19 up by 8.3% to close at Rs. 2.60, Ceylon tea Brokers up by 4.1% to close at Rs. 5.10 and Kelani Tyres up by 3.0% to close at Rs. 33.90. Notable losers for the day were PC House down by 12.6% to close at Rs. 3.20, Panasian Power down by 3.7% to close at Rs. 2.60 and Nawaloka down by 3.3% to close at Rs. 2.90.

Cash map for today was 57.53%. Foreign participation was 25.74% of total market turnover whilst net foreign buying was Rs. 335.5Mn.

Quote for the day

"Good traders get out of a position when they realize they have made a mistake. Great traders are capable of taking the opposite position when they realize their original concept was dead wrong." - Jamie Mai

LSL Market Review – 14th March 2013

A late surge in blue-chips helped to recover from mid-day losses. John Keells Holdings and National Development Bank continued to improve their 52-week highs to Rs. 239.00 and Rs. 158.50 respectively. Few blue-chips are trading beyond their intrinsic values therefore we advise investors not to get into the herd instinct but stick to value investing.

ASI gained 3.16 points (0.06%) to close at 5,688.98 and the S&P SL20 index gained 5.79 points (0.18%) to close at 3,241.03. Turnover was Rs. 609.2Mn.

Top contributors to turnover were John Keells Holdings with Rs. 169.0Mn, Sampath Bank with Rs. 106.2Mn and Odel with Rs. 46.1Mn. Most active counters for the day were PC House, Central Investments & Finance and Free Lanka Capital Holdings.

Notable gainers for the day were Talawakelle plantations up 10.0% to close at Rs. 26.50, Blue Diamonds non-voting up by 6.7% to close at Rs. 1.60 and LOLC up by 5.5% to close at Rs. 58.00. Notable losers for the day were Environmental Resource Investments down by 13.3% to close at Rs. 1.30, Vallibel Power down by 7.1% to close at Rs. 5.20 and Central Investments & Finance down by 6.7% to close at Rs. 2.80.

Cash map for today was 55.55%. Foreign participation was 39.0% of total market turnover whilst net foreign buying was Rs. 261.2Mn.

Company Valuation Toolkit

Basic toolkit of valuation measures. So let's start with the familiar:

P/E Ratio
The price earnings ratio (P/E) is the price of a share divided by its earnings per share (EPS). It is usually described as how many years of earnings are required to pay back the cost of buying a share, assuming no growth.

Another way of looking at the P/E ratio is that it is the reciprocal of earnings yield, which is EPS divided by the share price. If a company has a P/E of 8, its earnings yield is 12.5% (100/8). If it pays out 40% of its earnings each year in dividends, then its dividend yield will be 5.0% (40% x 12.5).

The P/E ratio is a ubiquitous measure of the rating of a share, and the simplest way of comparing two companies. But it is vital to ensure that you are comparing like with like:
• P/Es can be historic (based on latest reported earnings), prospective (based on forecast earnings) or trailing twelve month. If a company has reported interim results then its trailing twelve month P/E will be based on the earnings figure in the latest interims plus the last half of the previous year;
• If companies do not have coterminous year ends (e.g. if one has a year end on 30 June and another 31 December) then you need to compare the historic P/E of one with the trailing twelve month P/E of the other;
• Reported EPS figures can be basic, diluted and adjusted, so there are as many variants of the P/E ratio; 

and
• It can be safer to calculate the P/E yourself, on a per share basis or on a "whole company" basis as market capitalisation divided by earnings, which gives the same result.

P/E Relative
The P/E relative is simply a company's P/E divided by the market, or sector, average P/E.

So if a company has a P/E of 10 and the sector has an average P/E of 8 then its P/E relative is 125% (10/8), meaning it is rated at a premium of 25%.

Dividend Yield
This is dividend per share divided by the share price. Dividend yield can also be historic, prospective or trailing twelve month, and similar cautions about comparing like with like apply.

Dividend yield is intrinsically linked to earnings yield, and hence P/E ratio, through the payout ratio, the proportion of earnings paid as dividends rather than reinvested in the company.

A company can set the level of its dividend by varying the payout ratio. So dividend yield should always be considered in the context of the dividend cover, or EPS divided by its dividend per share. This shows how comfortably a company can afford to pay its dividend. Dividend cover is the reciprocal of the payout ratio.

PEG Ratio
The PEG ratio is calculated as the P/E ratio divided by the forecast growth in earnings.

It attempts to measure how much investors are paying for the anticipated future growth, and is associated with the "growth at a reasonable price" investment style.

Sometimes it can be helpful to look at some other valuation metrics as well:

Price/Sales Ratio
This is calculated by dividing the share price by revenues per share, or dividing market cap by total revenues.

It can be very illuminating in comparing companies who are direct competitors, and is useful:
• In comparing companies with very different gearing, which distorts P/E ratios; and
• If there are no earning figures, e.g. the company has made losses or is a start-up.

Price/Book Value & Price/Tangible Assets
Price to book is calculated as share price divided by net assets per share (or market cap divided by net assets). It is especially useful in specific sectors such as valuing banks, and gives an indication of how much substance underlies a company's market valuation.

Using only tangible assets is a harsher test of how much the valuation is backed by physical assets and is a useful "make sense" check as well as being associated with certain styles of investing.

Some analysts prefer to compare ratios based on a company's enterprise value (EV), which is its market capitalisation plus its outstanding debt (or long-term debt).

EV/EBITDA
EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and is operating profit (EBIT) with depreciation and amortisation added back.

This ratio is more robust in comparing companies which have very different capital structures and/or depreciation and amortisation policies.

EV/NOPAT
NOPAT is net operating profit after tax. It equals earnings before interest payments are deducted, and so the ratio is analogous to the P/E ratio applied to debt holders and shareholders taken together.
Source:Edited article from www.fool.co.uk

Quote for the day

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." - George Soros

LSL Market Review 13th Mar 2013

Retail selling prevailed today although few blue-chips sought by foreigners gained marginally. John Keells Holdings and National Development Bank reached their 52-week highs of Rs. 239.00 and Rs. 157.00. Ceylon Tobacco Company saw another lackluster day with buying interest slowing. Yields on all treasuries rose by 5 basis points each which further illustrate the negative footing of retailers.

ASI lost 18.50 points (0.32%) to close at 5,685.82 and the S&P SL20 index lost 11.85 points (0.36%) to close at 3,235.24. Turnover was Rs. 447.0Mn.

Top contributors to turnover were John Keells Holdings with Rs. 104.2Mn, Hatton National Bank with Rs. 80.6Mn and 63.8Mn. Most active counters for the day were Union Bank, Textured Jersey and Vallibel One.

Notable gainers for the day were Lanka Tiles up by 5.4% to close at Rs. 64.20, Commercial Leasing & Finance up by 4.7% to close at Rs. 4.50 and Odel up by 4.6% to close at Rs. 23.00. Notable losers for the day were Serendib Hotels down by 3.9% to close at Rs. 22.10, PC Pharma down by 3.9% to close at Rs. 7.50 and Blue Diamonds down by 3.0% to close at Rs. 3.20.

Cash map for today was 52.86%. Foreign participation was 36.85% of total market turnover and net foreign buying was Rs. 64.37Mn.

Quote for the day

"Bull markets go to people's heads. If you're a duck on a pond, and it's rising due to a downpour, you start going up in the world. But you think it's you, not the pond." - Charlie Munger