Saturday, 25 May 2013

Success Formula: E+R=O


I came across this formula in Jack Canfield’s “The Success Principles“. 
Events + Response = Outcome or in short, E + R = O.
I find it very apt in all situations, even in the field of investment.

E (Events) + R (Response) = O (Outcome)

EEvents are things that happened which you have no control
RResponse is how you react to the events
OOutcome of the events with your reactions

So how can this be applied to your life, especially in the context of money? Here are some of the examples:

On Retirement at Old age:

E – Retirement
R – Save
O – Enough money for retirement

as compared to

E – Retirement
R – No plans, no savings
O – Rely on others for retirement

On Insurance Planning:

E – Death
R – Bought life insurance
O – Beneficiaries have enough money to live after the breadwinner dies

as compared to

E – Death
R – Did not buy any insurance
O – Beneficiaries have to worry and work for money for the rest of their lives

On Financial Crisis:

E – Financial Crisis
R – Practise sound and disciplined investment principles
O – Survive the crash

as compared to

E – Financial Crisis
R – No knowledge on investing
O – Lose most of your capital

On Investing:

E – Value stocks appear after the crash
R – Knows how to select good value stocks
O – Enjoy the profits

as compared to

E – Value stocks appear after the crash
R – Cautious since economy has yet to recover
O – Misses the boat while others’ make profits

From the examples above, you can notice that the events do not change. But the responses will always change the outcomes. Events are situations that you cannot change or direct. They can happen expectedly or randomly. Instead of worrying about the events, you should focus on what is your response. Because it is your response that will create a different outcome. That is the only part of the equation you have control of. Most people give up this control, because it takes much more effort to take actions than hoping the events will turn better.

DO SOMETHING about your situation/event TODAY.

Source: http://www.bigfatpurse.com

Thursday, 23 May 2013

Quote for the day

“Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”. However, if you catch on early, before others believe, you might have valuable “surprise-a-mentals.”- Ed Seykota

Retailers continue to drive the small caps...


The week ended with both indices gaining significantly WoW continuing the positive momentum witnessed during the past few weeks. The ASI gained 108.2 points WoW to close at 6,488.9 points (1.7%), whilst the S&P SL 20 Index gained 76.8 points WoW to close at 3,666.0 points (2.1%). Indices gained mainly on the back of the gains made by Ceylon Tobacco (9.2%), John Keells holdings (3.1% WoW), Chevron Lubricants (17.4% WoW), Lion Brewery (15.1% WoW) and Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka (7.8% WoW).

The week saw heavy institutional and foreign interest on large cap counters which was a trend seen from the beginning of 2013. On the other hand retail involvement in equities continued to increase assisting the small cap counters to gain notably during the week. The fact that small cap counters have significantly regained the trading interest is an indication that the risk appetite of the market participants has returned and is gaining in momentum. The continuous drop in government T-bill rates and the expectations of a stronger LKR and hence a subdued level of inflation in the economy would further assist this trend going forward.

Moving onto global markets the Japanese economy grew 3.5% YoY in 1Q2013 exceeding the rate of U.S recovery, which positioned the Japanese Nikkei 225 firmly in green territory alongside U.S equities. Markets in the rest of the world notably in Europe and Asia remained subdued on account of the growth concerns of the two regions. It is observable that price of industrial commodities are moving in opposite direction to that of equity markets in U.S which is an indication that the current exuberance in U.S stocks may well be largely driven by U.S and Japanese stimulus funds reaching equities given that market interest rates in the two regions remain close to zero. Hence, the positive sentiment shown in U.S equity markets may not necessarily be driven by prospects of real economic growth given that U.S industrial production is down 0.5% in April and jobless claims increased according to latest Federal Reserve’s data.

Turning back to the activities at the Colombo bourse the turnover during the week was mainly assisted by Banking and Diversified sector counters which received special preference by foreign market participants. Heavy institutional involvement was also seen in these counters while retailers focused more on small and mid cap stocks with the aim of reaping short term returns. 

The highest contribution to the week’s turnover was made by Commercial Bank accounting to circa 24% of the weekly turnover while heavy weight John Keels Holdings contributed to 12.5%. During the week crossings were also recorded in counters such as Royal Ceramics, Cargill’s Ceylon, Hatton National Bank, Distilleries Company and Sampath Bank. On the back of these developments, the week saw an average turnover of LKR1.2bn and an average volume of 31.1mn.

Furthermore, Amana Takaful, Commercial Bank, Overseas Realty, Seylan Development and Panasian Power topped the list in terms of volume traded during the week.

The week saw foreign purchases amounting to LKR 2,486.8 mn whilst foreign sales amounted to LKR 582.3 mn. Market capitalisation stood at LKR 2,491.7 bn, and the YTD performance is 15%.

Conclusion:


Bourse continues to rise in value with majority of the counters reaching their 52 week peak...

The Colombo bourse commenced the week on a positive note gaining considerably, however the momentum gradually slowed down towards mid week owing to profit taking witnessed across the board. Conglomerate giant John Keells Holdings which made hefty gains over the past weeks reached its all time high of LKR299.80 during the week and also witnessed its market cap reach the UDS2bn mark, accounting for c. 10% of the total market capitalization. Majority of the large cap counters including banking and diversified counters encountered crossings during the week supported by institutional and foreign interest, whilst the counters witnessed substantial price gains. Further, retail play too was heavily observed on selected counters.

Meanwhile, Standard Charted Bank expressed its concerns over the policy rate cut indicating that the 50bps cut in key policy rates exceeded their expectation of 25bps and was too aggressive considering the economic challenges and issues faced by the country. It further stated that it has revised the country’s projected GDP growth for 2013E to 6.5% from 6.7% due to the weak export performance in 1Q2013. The bank also raised concerns over the country’s ability to maintain a desirable level of inflation and it expects the inflation to rise during 4Q2013 due to the expected increase in demand from the private sector investment resulting from low interest rates. On this backdrop, we urge the investors to align their portfolios towards a medium to long term time horizon focusing on fundamentally sturdy counters which we believe will be less volatile even if the market is to face a correction due to short term profit taking.
Source: Asia Wealth Research

Wednesday, 22 May 2013

Quote for the day

“The financial markets are naturally set up to take advantage of and prey upon human nature. As a result, markets initiate major intraday and swing moves with as few traders participating as possible. A trader who does not understand how this works is destined to lose money” - John F. Carte

LSL Market Review 22nd May 2013


Colombo Stocks today closed in green where both indexes ended with positive returns. All Share Index closed at 6,461.62, up 19.98 points (0.31%) and S&P SL 20 Index closed at 3,663.98, up 3.04 points (0.08%).

Heavy retail participation was seen in property sector counters such as Ceylinco Seylan Development (up by 7%), Colombo Land & Development (up by 3%) and Overseas Reality (up by 1%). Further investor interest were seen in alcoholic beverage manufactures such as Distilleries (up by LKR 5.90, 3%), Lion Brewery (up by LKR 38.60, 10%) and Ceylon Brewery (up by LKR 38.00, 8%).

Market turnover was LKR 767.7mn. Commercial Bank with LKR 192mn, Cargills Ceylon with LKR 90mn and Sampath Bank with LKR 53mn topped the turnover list today.

Foreign participation was 26% and foreign investors ended as net buyers with a net inflow of LKR 308mn. Cash map closed at 60.3%.

Price appreciation in index heavy stocks such as Nestle by LKR 40.00, Ceylon Tobacco by LKR 10.00 and Chevron Lubricants by LKR 12.80 contributed positively to the index performances.

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Quote for the day

"The wise investor can profit if he can think independently of the crowd and reach the rich answer when the majority of financial opinion is leaning the other way." -  Philip Fisher

LSL Market Review 21st May 2013


The indices closed in opposites today as most of the blue chips held ground amidst profit taking in several speculative and mid cap stocks. ASI snapped 04 day winning streak and closed 25.03 points (-0.4%) lower at 6,441.64. S&P SL 20 index closed at 3,660.94 with a gain of 11.59 points (0.3%).

Investor interest on premier blue chips such as Commercial Bank (Rs.125.00, +2.4%), John Keells Holdings (Rs.297.00,-0.0%) continued today as well and the stocks reached fresh 52 week highs. Commercial Bank has gained 7.5% during last five trading days while John Keells Holdings has gained 8.8% mainly on foreign buying. The total net foreign inflow to Commercial Bank and John Keells Holding during the five day period amounts to Rs.756mn and Rs.498mn respectively.

Foreigner investors were net buyers for the ninth consecutive day with net inflow Rs.1.1bn. Net inflows were reported in counters such as Commercial Bank (Rs.677mn), Distilleries (Rs.139mn) and John Keells Holdings (Rs.100mn).The total net foreign inflow for the year now amounts to Rs.12.0bn.

The daily turnover was Rs.2.2bn. 48% of the turnover came from off-the-floor deals in counter such as Commercial Bank (4.2mn shares at Rs.125.00), John Keells Holdings (0.9mn shares at c.Rs.298), Distilleries (0.6mn shares at Rs.190.00), Cargills (0.5mn shares at Rs.175.00), Sampath Bank (0.1mn shares at Rs.225.00) and Chevron (0.1mn shares at Rs.285.00).

Furthermore Overseas Realty (Rs.18.70,-1.1%), Nations Trust Bank (Rs.67.80,-0.3%), Distilleries (Rs.190.00,+0.3%), Chevron Lubricants (Rs.285.00,-0.4%) were among the 21 stocks that reached 52 week highs during the day.

On the other hand, drop in prices counters such as Retail favorite Environmental Resources (Rs.16.50,-6.3%), index heavy Nestle (Rs.2,010.00,-4.1%), Asian Hotels & Properties (Rs.71.10,-3.9%) and Sri Lanka Telecom (Rs.43.20,-2.5%) drove the ASI to the negative territory.

Retail activity was seen in counters such as Colombo Fort Land (Rs.39.30,+0.3%), Lanka Cement (Rs.10.20,+9.7%) and Odel (Rs.27.50,+1.9%).

Cash map for today was 45%.