Sunday, 10 January 2021

The 'Self-Factors' of Successful traders.

"Self-reverence, self-knowledge, self-control - these three alone lead to power" - Alfred, Lord Tennyson.

I am using the above quote to emphasise the importance of what I call the 'self-factors' in trading. - The self-factors highlight the importance of developing and adopting the right balance of behaviours and attitudes in trading for one to be on the right side of the success/failure line. - The positive ‘self-factors’ include qualities and traits which are common to many successful traders: Amongst some of the positive Self-Factors I include:

Self-awareness - Knowledge of oneself and how one acts and behaves in situations and environments.

Self-Belief - Self-Confidence - assuredness in one’s actions, judgments and abilities.

Self-Trust -The ability to have faith in oneself under duress and pressure.

Self-Reliance - Ability to depend on one's own capabilities, judgment, and resources , and acceptance that nobody else is responsible for profits and losses.

Self-discipline - A structured approach that keeps a person focused and grounded against negative forces and pressures.

Self-Control - Is the ability of exert mind muscle and will-power to overcome the negative effects which can so easily distract and distort perceptions and judgments.

Self-Motivation - Describes the initiative to undertake risks and activities when the mood and environment have been counterproductive.

Self-Esteem - High regard, respect or value for one’s self, but not to the level of being conceited, or having an over-inflated opinion of their worth.

Self-efficacy - Belief in one’s own competency and ability.

In summary, successful traders take responsibility for their own actions, but rarely beat themselves up. – If I was to sum it up succinctly, they know themselves, they like themselves, they believe in themselves, and above all – ‘they are comfortable in their own skin’.

On the other hand, failing and struggling traders display some or many of the opposite tendencies. Typically they possess or are caught up in cycles of ‘self-defeating’ behaviour; they may be riddled by self-doubt, and wracked by self-consciousness. They may lack the necessary self-belief and self-trust which is needed to overcome the many inherent biases and injurious traits that people naturally possess which make trading such a difficult task.

We use the word ‘self’ in so many ways without really thinking about how relevant and crucial it is: Trading is not just about knowing ‘the market’, ‘a strategy’, ‘a set of rules’, it is also about knowing your-‘self’, developing your ‘self’ and managing your ‘self’.

There is a reason we find reference to 'the self' mentioned so often in the performance literature, it is because it is so relevant and matters: I will finish with some examples, from various fields of performance; sport, combat, trading and endeavour, including one significant one from the trading literature:

"Know yourself. - You can't improve on something you don't understand" - Vince Lombardi.

"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperilled in a hundred battles;
If you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one;
If you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperilled in every single battle."

Sun Tzu - Chinese General, military strategist, and author of The Art of War.

"In actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself -- that is, against human nature." - Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

And my own personal favourite, which I quote on my business website (www.bgtedge.com).
"It’s not the mountain we conquer, but ourselves." - Sir Edmund Hillary – The first man to climb Mount Everest.
Edited Article of Steven Goldstein from http://hometraderuk.blogspot.co.uk

Quote for the day

"Investors, most of them, have a herd mentality. They want to invest only if other people are investing" - Jessica Livingston

Saturday, 9 January 2021

Formulas for Managing Trading Emotions

I truly believe the hardest thing about real trading has not been the math, the method, or picking the right stock, currency, commodity, or futures contract. The most difficult thing about trading is dealing with the emotions that arise with trading itself. From the stress of actually entering a trade or the fear of loss as a trade goes against you. Even winning trades can be stressful as the fear of losing the paper profits that you are holding with a winner can even effect a trader. Then most importantly the ability of dealing with the emotional lows of a string of losses or the highs of many consecutive wins can cause a trader to lose their confidence or discipline. The bottom line is how you deal with those emotions will determine your long term success in trading more than any other one thing.

To manage your emotions first of all you must trade a robust trading methodology after you have confirmed that it will be a winner in the long term with your edge if you stay disciplined. You also must trade your method with proper position sizing and risk management to keep the volume down on your emotions and ego. If you have that the next step is the management of your emotions.

We must understand that every trade is not going to be a winner and not blame our self for equity draw downs if we are trading with discipline.

Do not bet your entire account on any one trade, in fact risking only 1% of your total capital on any one trade is the best thing you can do for your stress levels and to bring your risk of ruin to virtually zero. (This is based on your stop loss placement, not 1% position sizing).

With that said here are some examples of emotional equations to better understand why you feel certain emotions strongly in your trading: (The ‘=’ sign should be read as ‘equals’ and the ‘-‘ symbol read as ‘minus’ to understand the formulas here).

Losing Money – Trading Better = Despair

Do not despair look at your losses as part of doing business and as paying tuition fees to the markets.

Expectations – Reality= Disappointment 


Enter trading with realistic expectations. You can realistically expect 15% -20% annual returns on capital with great trading after you have experience and have done the necessary homework. More than that is possible but you will have take on more risk and be one of the very best traders or investors to achieve greater returns than this.

Disappointment in a loss+ Caused by lack of Discipline = Regret

If you followed your trading plan and lose money because the market did not move in your direction so be it, but if you went off your plan and traded based on your feelings and opinions then you should feel regret and stop being undisciplined.

Winning Trades – Fear of Ruin = Enjoying your Trading

Trading is much more enjoyable when you are risking 1% of your capital in the hopes of making 3% on your capital with a zero chance of ruin or have a very high winning percentage with very small losses when wrong. It is not enjoyable when you are putting a huge percentage of your capital on the line in each trade and are only a few bad trades away from your account going to zero or a big draw down.

Understanding what makes money + Years of successful trading = Trading Wisdom


To get good at trading you have to trade real money. Wisdom comes from putting real money on the line for years and proving to yourself that you can come out a winner in the long term.

Belief through back testing + Experience of winning with it for years = Faith in your system

Whether any individual trade is a winner or loser should not influence your faith in your system and trading method. You should trade in a way that each trade is just one trade out of the next 100. Much of emotional trading can be overcome when you do not have doubts about your method. When you believe in your method, system, risk management, and your own discipline, you will overcome many of the emotional problems that arise in the heat of trading during a live market.

Most new traders will be very surprised at the emotions that rise up during active trading when real money is at risk, I hope this blog post gives many a heads up on this factor and how to overcome it.
Source: www.newtraderu.com

Quote for the day

"When you lose, don't lose the lesson." - Dalai Lama

Friday, 8 January 2021

The Different Trading Styles

By Rolf

Finding the right trading style for your personality and for your daily lifestyle is an important factor when it comes to succeeding in the trading world. Most traders don’t make this connection and just randomly choose a trading approach without cross-checking whether or not they should be trading in such a way.

Day-trading

Day trading is characterized by having multiple trades per day and spending many hours in front of the charts. Day traders usually analyze different instruments and markets, or trade on the lower time-frames to generate more trading opportunities.

Often, day traders enter and exit their trades within hours and often don’t hold positions over night.

Cons: Day traders need a stable personality and have to be able to cope with some of the most common challenges traders face (over and revenge trading) very well. Traders who have a ‘gambling mentality and tend to go on tilt easy, have usually hard times as day traders.

Pros: On the other hand, day traders usually get many signals per day and can, therefore, trade more frequently. If you have a hard time waiting for trading signals on the higher time-frames, day trading might be an alternative. Furthermore, missing a trade as a day trader is not as meaningful, because you will get new entry signals more frequent.

Swing-trading

Swing traders have fewer trades. They usually trade the higher-time frames, such as the Weekly, Daily or 4 hours time-frame. Swing traders, as the name implies, are trying to catch greater market swings in order to be able to ride trends longer. Swing traders hold trades for days and, in some cases, also for weeks.

Cons: As a swing trader, you need a lot of patience because signals could take days and weeks to manifest. Additionally, once you are in a trade, you have to have great trust in your system and your analysis because you have to deal with frequent retracement often.

Pro: The daily routine of a swing trader is less hectic. They have more time to do market research and plan their trades in advance. Swing trading might also be a better fit if you are still working in a different job.

Scalping

Scalpers are the extremes among day traders. Scalpers can easily have dozens of trades per trading session. They hold trades for a few seconds or minutes.

Cons: The cons of day trading apply here as well, but are even more emphasized. Scalping requires a strong character and scalpers need to be emotionally very stable. If you tend to over trade, get frustrated easily or can’t deal with losses, scalping is probably not for you.

Pros: If you are a scalper, the time needed for trading per day can be very limited. Also, individual losses, if taken correctly, don’t have great impact because a scalper gets to many trades per day, that any individual trade has no importance.

Algo / Automated trading

An automated trading strategy trades for you while you don’t have to monitor your trades. After programming your automated trading strategy, you only have to monitor its performance without actively managing markets or trades.

Cons: Creating an automated trading strategy requires programming skills (although there are some software packages that help you with it) and curve fitting is also a very issue. Most automated trading strategies have great past-performance, while failing to deliver the same results going forward.

Pros:
Automating a trading strategy removes emotions and the negative impacts that making impulsive trading decisions have. Furthermore, it also frees up time for you because you are not bound to a screen all day long.

Discretionary vs. Rule-based

For every different trading style, a trader has to choose between being a discretionary trader or following a rule based approach. We will explain the differences, advantages and limitations of each approach in the following:

Rule-based trading

Traders who follow a rule-based approach have usually a fixed set of rules that signal them when they have to enter a trade. Especially traders who rely on indicators are often rule-based, indicator strategies usually require certain values, developments or standings on their indicators before an entry signal exists.

Automated trading strategies are always purely rule-based since conventional algorithms cannot think for themselves and, therefore, need exact parameters that signal them when they have to enter a trade.

Cons: Purely rule-based strategies often have a hard time adapting to changing market conditions and while such strategies perform well under certain conditions, they fail completely when market conditions change.

Pros: As stated under automated trading strategies, rules can eliminate the impacts emotions and psychology often have. If you have fixed parameters for entering trades, your trading style is less subjective and easy to replicate.

Discretionary trading

The discretionary trading system adapts to changing market conditions. Such methods require a high level of personal analysis and depend heavily on continuous research. Entry signals and how trades execute their trades changes continuously since markets always change.

Cons: Discretionary traders often use their approach as an excuse to be less strict about the way they approach trading. The absence of strict rules does not mean that a trader is purely trading based on assumptions or gut feeling, but that he has to assess current market conditions and adapt to his style.

Pros: Discretionary strategies can adapt to changing market conditions and traders can react faster when markets suddenly change.
Sorce: www.tradeciety.com/

Quote for the day

"Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced." - James A. Baldwin

Thursday, 7 January 2021

3 Moving Average Crossover Strategy

The 3 moving average crossover strategy is a technical trading technique that uses three exponential moving averages of different time lengths to create signals on a chart.

The three moving averages we will look at are the 10-day EMA, 30-day EMA, and 50 day EMA. 

10-day EMA is the momentum indicator.
30-day EMA is the value zone.
50-day EMA filters for the longer term trend.

Price over all three averages is a strong confluence showing both an uptrend and rising momentum in all three time frames.

When the 50-day EMA is above both the 10-day and 30-day the chart can be considered to have lost short term momentum, if price falls below the 50-day EMA then that is a signal that the longer term uptrend is reversing into a possible downtrend.

Price under all three moving averages is a strong confluence showing both a downtrend and falling momentum in all three time frames.

The 10-day EMA crossing over the 30-day EMA above the 50-day EMA is a potential long entry signal.

The 10-day EMA crossing below the 30-day EMA below the 50-day EMA is a possible short selling signal.

The 10-day EMA crossing over the 30-day EMA below the 50-day EMA can be a potential signal of a reversal in the longer term trend from down to back to an uptrend.

The 10-day EMA crossing below the 30-day EMA above the 50-day EMA can be a potential signal of a reversal in the longer term trend from up to the beginning of a new downswing in price.

The three moving averages can be used together as filters for price action showing the best entries and exits to go with the flow of the current momentum and trend on the chart. The 10/30 day EMA and 10/50 day EMA crossover signals can be backtested on charts to create mechanical entry and exit signals. The 30-day ema can be used to signal a value zone on the chart for potential reversion to the mean trades when price gets too far extended from this line stretched too far like a rubberband the odds that it will eventually snap back.

Three moving averages simply show the current direction of momentum on a chart and can be used to create good risk/reward ratios at entry through the use of stop losses, trailing stops, and profit targets.

Three moving averages on a chart can visually show traders both the direction of the long term trend and whether the short term trend still has momentum in the same direction. The shorter term moving averages can confirm the longer term moving average or show a divergence. Price over the 50-day EMA at the same time price is under the 10-day EMA can be a warning sign of a reversal in a trend.

A triple moving average crossover of all three moving averages at the same time can be one of the most bullish signals on a chart when it happens. A triple moving average crossunder of all three moving averages at the same time can be one of the most bearish signals on a chart when it happens.

The 3 moving average crossover strategy can give price context on a chart in relation to the three different lines.


Chart Courtesy of TrendSpider.com
Source:www.newtraderu.com