Tuesday, 23 June 2020

Quote for the day

"Mr. Market does not always price stocks the way an appraiser or a private buyer would value a business. Instead, when stocks are going up, he happily pays more than their objective value; and, when they are going down, he is desperate to dump them for less than their true worth." - Benjamin Graham

Origin of the Stock Market Terms “Bull” and “Bear”

By Daven Hiskey


 Kevin asks: Why do we call the stock market trends “bullish” and “bearish”? 

For those who don’t know, a “bear” market, or when someone is being “bearish” in this context, is marked by investors being very conservative and pessimistic, resulting in a declining market generally marked by the mass selling off of stock. A “bull” market is simply the opposite of that, with investors being aggressive and positive, with stock prices rising as a result of this optimism. This “bull” and “bear” terminology first popped up in the 18th century in England.

There are a couple different possible sources for the “bear” part of this tandem, but the leading theory is that it derived from an old 16th century proverb: “selling the bear's skin before one has caught the bear” or alternatively, “Don't sell the bear's skin before you've killed him,” equivalent to, “Don't count your eggs before they’re hatched.”

By the early 18th century, when people in the stock world would sell something they didn’t yet own (in hopes of turning a profit by eventually being able to buy the thing at a cheaper rate than they sold it, before delivery was due), this gave rise to the saying that they “sold the bearskin” and the people themselves were called “bearskin jobbers”.

One of the earliest references of this comes from an issue of The Tatler, April 26, 1709:

"Forasmuch as it is very hard to keep land in repair without ready cash, I do, out of my personal estate, bestow the bear-skin, which I have frequently lent to several societies about this town, to supply their necessities; I say, I give also the said bear-skin as an immediate fund to the said citizens forever…"


In a later edition, June 23, 1709, it goes on to state:

"I fear the word Bear is hardly to be understood among the polite people; but I take the meaning to be, that one who insures a real value upon an imaginary thing, is said to sell a Bear, and is the same thing as a promise among courtiers, or a vow between lovers…"


Yet another early instance of the term is in Daniel Defoe’s The Anatomy of Change Alley, published in 1719, around the time the term was popularized to something of the same type of definition we use today:

"Those who buy Exchange Alley Bargains are styled buyers of Bear-skins."


The use of the word “bear” in this way was popularized thanks to one of the early market bubbles known as the South Sea Bubble. While it was a long and incredibly complex market scheme that led to the bubble, the gist of it was that the South Sea Company, formed in 1711, was granted by Britain a monopoly on all trade to South America and would be given an annual sum (6% interest plus expenses) from the government. In exchange, the new company agreed to take over large portions of the government’s debt. (In fact, this was primarily how the company actually made money throughout its century and a half it was in business, simply by dealing in government debt.)

Thanks to this deal and an amazing amount of government corruption, insider trading, and other unscrupulous practices by certain shareholders who knew well that the company’s trade business had little hope of ever being profitable, the burgeoning company’s stock soared. At its peak, based on the stock price, the company was worth about £200 million (by purchasing power, today this would be about £24 billion or $37 billion; by average earnings, it would be £350 billion or $537 billion).

Besides the fact that they didn’t even have their first trading shipment until 1717, 6 years after the trading company first formed, one of the problems was that having an exclusive monopoly on trading to South America from the British government at the time wasn’t saying much as most of the region was almost entirely held by Spain, who Britain was at war with. Nevertheless, amid rampant and widely published rumors (deftly planted by certain stock holders to jack up the price) of the vast wealth from gold and other resources in those regions and the potential promise of soon securing trade rights from Spain, the stock prices soared, even though the company itself wasn’t really doing any actual trading and their main asset, the monopoly on trade to Middle and South America, was essentially worthless, as the core stock holders knew well.

Spain did eventually grant the South Sea Company rights to trade in the regions held by Spain, but only one ship load per year total was allowed in exchange for a percentage of the profits. Needless to say, the inability to do any actual real volume of trading and the fact that war once again broke out in 1718 between Spain and Britain causing much of the company’s scant physical assets to be seized by Spain, the market crash that followed wasn't pretty.

As to the “bull” name for rising markets, in this case we have to do a little more speculation as the documented evidence just isn’t there. The leading theory is that it came about as a direct result of the term “bear”. Specifically, the first known instance of the market term “bull” popped up in 1714, shortly after the “bear” term popped up. At the time, it was something of a common practice to bear and bull-bait. Essentially, with bear baiting, they’d chain a bear (or bears) up in an arena, and then set some other animals to attack the bear(s) (usually dogs) as a form of entertainment for spectators seated in the arena.

While bears were one of the more popular animals to use in these games, bulls were also commonly used. More rarely, other animals were used such as in one instance where an ape was tied to a pony’s back and dogs were set on them. According to one spectator, the spectacle of the dogs tearing the pony to shreds while the ape screamed and desperately tried to stay on the pony’s back, out of reach of the snapping jaws of the dogs, was “very laughable”…

In any event, the popularity of bear and bull baiting, along with perhaps the association with bulls charging, is thought to have probably been why “bull” was chosen as something of the antithesis of a “bear”, shortly after “bear” first popped up in the stock sense. But, of course, we can’t be at all sure on this one as there wasn’t the more lengthy documented progression of definition as with the “bear” term.

Source: http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2013/04/origin-of-the-stock-market-terms-bull-and-bear/

Monday, 22 June 2020

Quote for the day

"In an ideal world, the intelligent investor would hold stocks only when they are cheap and sell them when they become overpriced, then duck into the bunker of bonds and cash until stocks again become cheap enough to buy." - Benjamin Graham

Investing Is A Science

When it comes to investing, most people think that making money is about luck, inside tips, or intuition. Some feel that only the rich can access strategies and investment products that make money.

The truth is that while luck, inside tips and intuition can be helpful, successful investing actually happens with other elements like logic, research, process and discipline.

1. Logic versus Emotions
Many successful experts in the investment business will tell you that success comes in your ability to remove emotions from the decision making process. While I believe this to be true, I also believe it is impossible to completely remove emotions from financial and investment decisions. However, success in investing does come from your ability to think with more logic and less emotion.

One of the best examples of this is when investors sell out their investments at the bottom of the market. Logically, when prices fall, it is the time to buy. You get more units for the same dollar. Yet over and over again, investors sell because of emotion over logic.

2. Research
I’ve always believed that good research leads to good decisions. The trouble is, good research is sometimes hard to come by. Whatever the case may be, research never guarantees success because the investment industry is an imperfect one. However, good research does increase the likelihood that you will make better decisions about investing.

The principles of good research apply in everyday life. One of my good friends recently bought a new car. He read consumer magazines, went to different dealerships, and test-drove numerous cars. In the end, he had the peace of mind that the car he bought was the right choice. He could spout all the options, benefits and statistics of his new car and no one could dare to convince him that he made a bad choice.

3. Discipline
Investing requires discipline. It is so easy to try to take shortcuts or get lured into get rich quick schemes. The fact is, the odds that fast moneymaking schemes work are really against you. Yet, every day investors are disappointed with lottery tickets, lousy investments and lack of discipline. The unfortunate truth is investment success is more likely to come slow and steady.

In the health and nutrition industry any expert will tell you that losing weight simply requires discipline. There are many variations to dieting and exercise but the bottom line is that success only results from staying disciplined to nutrition and exercise. The reason so many people gain back weight that they lose is that they lose the discipline to keep the plan going. Investing is no different!

4. Process
Everything works better with a plan. You don’t have to have a plan to succeed but you certainly have better chances with a plan. The old saying goes, “if you don’t have a plan, any road will do.” Developing a plan is the first step to success. It will help you to think logically and rationally. Once you have the plan, it helps you to stay disciplined and keep on track.

Imagine driving from Edmonton to Vancouver for the first time. If you don’t have a map or a plan, you can still make it there. However, with a map, you are less likely to take the wrong turn or get off track. An investment plan will give you that same security and peace of mind, knowing when turns come ahead of time and what to do in case unexpected events occur.

Putting it all together
Put these four elements together and you will find the words of Warren Buffett:

“To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric I.Q., unusual business insight, or inside information. What is needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.”

So in the end, if investing is about logic, research, discipline and process, then investing is more of a science than an art. There is no such thing as perfection in this industry. If that were the case, we would all own that one perfect investment. Simply try to remember these elements to investing and that success does not mean you will not make mistakes. Rather, success comes when you make more good decisions than bad ones, you make money more often than you lose money, and you are right more often than wrong.
Written by Jim Yih in Investing
http://retirehappyblog.ca

Sunday, 21 June 2020

Quote for the day

"Investing is important, but get debt-free first. That's what frees up your income so you can win." - Dave Ramsey

Saturday, 20 June 2020

Quote for the day

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor." - Jesse Lauriston Livermore

42 Ways To Trade Like A Market Wizard

What if you could read the principles for success for some of the world’s greatest traders? Well you can, here is how author Jack Schwager summed up the the similarities of the ‘Market Wizards’ he spent years interviewing in his second book.
The following is a summarized excerpt from Jack D Schwager’s book, The New Market Wizards. I highly recommend this book for all active traders.
  1. First Things First You sure you really want to trade ? It is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t.
  2. Examine Your Motives Why do you really want to trade ? Did you say excitement ? Then don’t waste your money in market, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hand gliding.
    The market is a stern master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite directions, the game is lost before you start.
  3. Match The Trading Method To Your Personality It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your your own personality and conflict level.
  4. It Is Absolutely Necessary To Have An Edge You cant win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.
  5. Derive A Method To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.
  6. Developing A Method Is Hard Work Short cuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple failures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals. Why should you be any better ? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.
  7. Skill Versus Hard Work The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may provide proficiency, but not excellence.
    Virtually anyone can become a net profitable trader, but only a few have the inborn talent to become super traders ! For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only up to a point. Be realistic in your goals.
  8. Good Trading Should Be Effortless Hard work refers to the preparatory process – the research and observation necessary to become a good trader – not to the trading itself.
    “In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it's wrong. You’re out of sync; you're out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort.”
  9. Money Management and Risk Control
    Money management is even more important than the trading method. The Trading Plan
    • Never risk more than 5% of your capital on any trade.
    • Predetermine your exit point before you get in a trade.
    • If you lose a certain predetermined amount of your starting capital (say 10 to 20%), take a breather, analyze what went wrong, and wait till you feel confident and have a high-probability idea before you begin trading again.
  10. Trying to win in the markets without a trading plan is like trying to build a house without blue prints – costly (and avoidable) mistakes are virtually inevitable. A trading plan simply requires a personal trading method with specific money management and trade entry rules.
  11. Discipline
    Discipline was probably most frequent word used by the exceptional trades that I interviewed.
    There are two reasons why discipline is critical. Understand That You Are Responsible
    • Its a prerequisite for maintaining effective risk control.
    • You need discipline to apply your methods without second guessing and choosing which trade to take.
    A final word, remember that you are never immune to bad trading habits – the best you can do is to keep them latent. As soon as you get lazy or sloppy, they will return !
  12. Whether you win or lose, YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE for your own results. I've never met a successful trader who blamed others for his losses.
  13. The Need For Independence You need to do your own thinking. It also means making your own trading decisions. Never listen to other opinions.
  14. Confidence An unwavering confidence in their ability to continue to win in the markets was a nearly universal characteristic among the traders I interviewed.
  15. Losing is Part of the Game The great traders realize that losing is an intrinsic element in the game of trading. This attitude is linked to confidence. Because exceptional traders are confident that they will win over the long run, individual trades no longer seem horrible; they simply appear inevitable.
    There is no more certain recipe for losing than having a fear of losing. If you cant stand taking losses, you will either end up taking large losses or missing great trading opportunities – either flaw is sufficient to sink any chance for success.
  16. Lack of Confidence and Time-Outs Trade only when you feel confident and optimistic.
  17. The Urge to Seek Advice The urge to seek advice betrays a lack of confidence.
  18. The Virtue of Patience Waiting for the right opportunity increases the probability of success. You don’t always have to be in the market.
    Guard particularly against being overeager to trade in order to win back prior losses. Vengeance trading is a sure recipe for failure.
  19. The Importance of Sitting Patience is important not only in waiting for right trades, but also in staying with trades that are working. The failure to adequately profit from correct trades is a key profit-limiting factor.
    “One common adage .. that is completely wrong headed is : You cant go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits.”
  20. Developing a Low-Risk Idea The merit of a low risk idea is that it combines two essential elements: patience (because only a small portion of ideas will qualify) and risk control (inherent in the definition). “Open a doughnut shop next door to a police station”.
  21. The Importance of Varying Bet Size It can be mathematically demonstrated that in any wager game with varying probabilities, winnings are maximized by adjusting the bet size in accordance with the perceived chance of a successful outcome. 
  22. Scaling In and Out of Trades You don’t have to get in or out of a position all at once. Scaling in and out of positions provides the flexibility of fine tuning trades and broadens the set of alternative choices.
  23. Being Right is More Important than being a Genius Think about winning rather than being a hero. Go for consistency on a trade-to-trade basis, not perfect trades.
  24. Don’t Worry About Looking Stupid Don’t talk about your position.
  25. Sometimes Action is More Important than Prudence When your analysis, methodology, or gut tells you to get into a trade at the market instead of waiting for a correction – do so.
  26. Catching Part of the Move is Just Fine Just because you missed the first major portion of a new trend, don’t let that keep you from trading with that trend (as long as you can define a reasonable stop-loss point).
  27. Maximize Gains, Not the Number of Wins The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance.
  28. Learn to be Disloyal Never have loyalty to a position.
  29. Pull Out Partial Profits Reward Yourself !
  30. Hope is a Four-Letter Word Hope is a dirty word for a trader, not only in regards to procrastinating in a losing position, hoping the market will come back, but also in terms of hoping for a reaction that will allow for a better entry in a missed trade.
  31. Don’t Do the Comfortable Thing Do what is right, not what feels comfortable.
  32. You Cant Win If You Have To Win “Scared money never wins”. If you are risking money you cant afford to lose, all the emotional pitfalls of trading will be magnified. The market seldom tolerates the carelessness associated with traders born of desperation.
  33. Think Twice When The Market Lets You Off The Hook Easily There must be some very powerful underlying forces in favor of the direction of the original position !
  34. A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Close Open-mindedness seems to be a common trait among those who excel at trading.
  35. The Markets are an Expensive Place to Look for Excitement Excitement has a lot to do with the image of trading but nothing to do with success in trading.
  36. The Calm State of a Trader If there is an emotional state associated with successful trading, it is the antithesis of excitement. Exceptional traders are able to remain calm and detached regardless of what the markets are doing.
  37. Identify and Eliminate Stress Stress in trading is a sign that something is wrong. If you feel stress, think about the cause, and then act to eliminate the problem.
  38. Pay Attention to Intuition Intuition is simply experience that resides in the subconscious mind. The objectivity of market analysis done by the conscious mind can be compromised by all sorts of extraneous considerations (e.g., one’s current market position, a resistance to change a previous forecast). The subconscious, however, is not inhibited by such constraints. Unfortunately, we cant readily tap into our subconscious thoughts. However, when they come through as intuition, the trader needs to pay attention. “The trick is to differentiate between what you want to happen and what you know will happen.
  39. Life’s Mission and Love of the Endeavor Many traders felt that trading was what they were meant to do – in essence, their mission in life.
  40. The Elements of Achievements
    Faulkner’s list of the six key steps to achievement Prices are Non random = The Markets can be Beat
    1. using both “Toward” and “Away From” motivation;
    2. having a goal of full capability plus, with anything less being unacceptable;
    3. breaking down potentially overwhelming goals into chunks, with satisfaction garnered from completion of each individual steps;
    4. keeping full concentration on the present moment – that is, the single task at hand rather than the long-term goals;
    5. being personally involved in achieving goals (as opposed to depending on others); and
    6. making self-to-self comparisons to measure progress.
    Robert Krausz’s basic tasks necessary to become a winning trader.
    1. Develop a competent analytical methodology.
    2. Extract a reasonable trading plan from this methodology.
    3. Formulate rules for this plan that incorporate money management techniques.
    4. Back-test the plan over a sufficiently long period.
    5. Exercise self-management so that you adhere to the plan. The best plan in the world cannot work if you don’t act on it.
  41. In reference to academicians who believe market prices are random, Trout says, “That’s probably why they're professors and why I'm making money doing what I'm doing.” These exceptional traders have proved that it can be done !
  42. Keep Trading in Perspective There is more to life than trading !
Source: http://newtraderu.com/