Friday, 20 November 2020

12 Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow

There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.

1. Buy low-sell high. As simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.

2. The stock market is always right and price is the only reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.

Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.

3. Every market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down, the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes. This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."

4. If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks or markets make large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain. Since we are dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting your time looking for the many reasons markets move.

A huge mistake most investors make is assuming that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the whys.

5. Stock markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals - sometimes months in advance. If you wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be too late.

You need to get positioned before the largest directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.

6. The trend is your friend. Since the trend is the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period o ftime to maximize profits. Big money can be made by catching large market moves. Day trading or short term stock investing can capture the shorter moves while waiting for the longer term trend to establish itself.

7. You must let your profits run and cut your losses quickly if you are to have any chance of being successful. Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets, but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading "system" in itself.

8. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism. The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.

The perfect competition model is not based on anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they earn.

The combination of superior information for some investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling low for others, creates inefficient markets.

9. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets. Successful market timing is possible but not with the tools of analysis that most people employ.

If you eliminate optimization, data mining, subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most trading ideas are losers.

10. Never trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors, stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers, newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money and have traded successfully for years and/or provide third party verification of performance.

Note those that have traded successfully over very long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational analysis of all the facts.

11. The worst thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio. Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.

You can avoid making that huge mistake by avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high.

Since your starting point is critical in determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.

12. The most successful investing methods should take most individuals no more than four or five hours per week and, for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress involved.

By C.C. Collins who is a respected financial strategist, market timing expert and CEO of BeMarketSmart.com.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com

Quote for the day

""Failure" is not the falling down, but the staying down." - Mary Pickford

Thursday, 19 November 2020

Trade Like a Casino by Richard L. Weissman

  1. The Casino Paradigm
    1. Developing Positive Expectancy Models
      • Price has memory – traders experienced pain, pleasure, and regret associated with a linear price level
      • Kahneman & Tversky found the reflection effect proved that people were risk-averse regarding choices involving prospects of gains and risk-seeking over prospects involving losses
      • We can NEVER know all the reasons why the market rose or why it fell, but we can develop various rules for entry, exit, and risk management based upon objective, mathematically derived technical formulas
    2. Price Risk Management Methodologies
      • In higher volatility environments we need to place our stops further from our entry price so we can avoid being needlessly stopped out of trades; in lower volatility place stops closer to entry
      • Any idiot can take a profit.  Professionals know how to take losses
    3. Maintaining Unwavering Discipline
      • All humans have a psychological bias against taking losses -Kahneman & Tversky
      • We abandon discipline in risk management because we do not want to admit that we are wrong
  2. Trader Tools and Techniques
    1. Capitalizing on the Cyclical Nature of Volatility
    2. Trading the Markets and Not the Money
      • That which is psychologically natural and comfortable leads to failure
      • We need to think about profits in terms of probabilities instead of personal monetary needs
    3. Minimizing Trader Regret
      • Unrealized gains are your money and need to be treated in the same casino paradigm manner as all monies in your trading account
      • Regret minimization helps a trader be even-minded, take partial profits and move stops to break-even on the remainder
      • Never let a statistically significant unrealized gain turn into a statistically significant realized loss
    4. Timeframe Analysis
    5. How to Use Trading Models
    6. Anticipating the Signal
      • Don’t anticipate, just participate
  3. Trader Psychology
    1. Transcending Common Trading Pitfalls
      • All market behaviour is multifaceted, uncertain, and ever changing.
      • “I am employing a robust, positive expectancy trading model and am appropriately managing risk on each and every trade.  Losses are an inevitable and unavoidable aspect of executing all models.  Consequently, I will confidently continue trading.”
      • Denial of loss and uncertainty is extremely destructive because it prevents us from thinking in terms of probabilities, planning for the possibility of loss, and consequently from the necessity of consistently managing risk.
      • If we view markets as adversarial we cut ourselves off from emotionally tempered, objective solutions to speculation (opportunities to profit)
      • Blind faith is no substitute for research, methodical planning, stringent risk management, playing the probabilities, and unwavering discipline
      • Depression is a suboptimal emotional state because it allows past losses or missed opportunities to limit our ability to perceive information about the markets in the present
      • We are not our trades; they are merely an activity in which we are engaged
      • Greed is linked to fear of regret, which is the greatest force impeding a trader’s performance outside of fear of loss
      • Market offers limitless opportunities for abundance
      • Trading biases prevent us from objectively perceiving reality, thereby limiting our ability to capitalize on various opportunities in the markets.
    2. Analyzing Performance
      • Do you have other professional time commitments?
      • What prevents you from giving up during draw downs or from becoming reckless during a winning streak?
      • Have you deviated from your methodologies and if so, why?
      • After deviating from your methodologies, what specific steps do you take to prevent deviation in the future?
      • What threshold of AUM will impede your ability to trade specific instruments?
      • How many strategies are you currently trading?
      • Did you develop these models?
      • Is your performance real or hypothetical?
      • What assets are currently traded?
      • Does typical number of trades executed change during winning or losing periods?
      • Describe your various methodologies?
      • Are the models always in or do they allow for neutrality?
      • Same methodologies in all markets?
      • Are trade entry and exit criteria different?
      • Do the methods work better on a specific time horizon?
      • Are the methods more robust in specific types of market environments?
      • What are the strengths and weaknesses of the methods used?
      • Do the methods use diversification?
      • How do you determine assets traded?
      • How do you determine entry, exits, and stops?
      • How do you determine position size and leverage?
      • Do you add to or reduce exposures on winning positions?
      • Is fundamental information used?
      • How do you deal with price shock events?
      • Describe indicators used and how they form your methodologies?
      • Long or short biases?
      • What is the rate of return and worst peak-to-valley equity drawdown objectives?
      • How do you account for correlations between assets traded?
      • Type of stops used?
      • Do you adjust position size following significant profits or losses?
      • What percentage draw down would result in closure of your account?
      • Do you use a trading journal?
    3. Becoming an Even-Tempered Trader
      • Temper emotionalism
Source: http://www.thetraderlyscholar.com/

Quote for the day

"History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to become discouraged by their defeats." - B. C. Forbes

Wednesday, 18 November 2020

Quote for the day

"Anxiety and fear are cousins but not twins. Fear sees a threat. Anxiety imagines one." - Max Lucado

Tuesday, 17 November 2020

Quote for the day

"Order and simplification are the first steps toward the mastery of a subject." - Thomas Mann

Monday, 16 November 2020

There Are 3 Stages In a Typical Bull Market


“Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized: In the first it is ridiculed; in the second it is opposed; in the third it is regarded as self-evident.” – Schopenhauer

Typical market uptrends go through three main sentiment stages:

1) “What bull market? The fall is right around the corner”

Most of the signs of an uptrend are already here – money is leaving defensive names in order to chase higher yield, breadth is improving, correlation and volatility decline substantially. Despite of that, many people don’t believe the rally and prefer to short “overbought” names, only to get squeezed by the tidal wave of monstrous accumulation.

The fastest price appreciation happens in stage 1 and stage 3.

2) Acceptance stage

More and more people gradually warm up to the idea that we are in an uptrend and the market should be considered “innocent until proven guilty. Stocks have been going up for awhile and the minor dips were short lived.

Between stage 2 and stage 3, there is usually a deeper market pullback, which tests the resilience of the rally, shakes weak hands out and allows for new bases to be formed. The deeper pullback is used as a buying opportunity by institutions, which missed the the initial stages of the rally and their purchases push the market to new highs.

3) Everything will go up forever

During stage one, most people are skeptical, because the market has just come from a high-correlation, mean-reversion environment and most are unwilling to see the ensuing change in market character. In stage two, investors gradually turn bullish for the simple reason that prices have been going up for a while. Analysts and Strategists are also turning bullish in an attempt to manage their career risk. In the third stage, most market participants are ecstatic, not only because prices have been going up for a while, but because they personally have managed to make a lot of money. Everything seems easy, the future looks rosy and complacency takes over proper due diligence.

Edited article from http://ivanhoff.com