Quote for the day

“The usual starting point for forecasting something is its current level. Mosts forecasts extrapolate, perhaps making modest adjustments up or down. In other words, most forecasting is done incrementally, and few predictors contemplate order-of-magnitude changes... Forecasters usually stick too closely to the current level, and on those rare occasions when they call for change, they often underestimate the potential magnitude.”
 - Howard Marks