09-Mar-2015 CSE Trade Summary

Quote for the day

"Persistence, homework, more homework and more homework is the reason for success. I feel many traders don’t put the time in. They don’t have the desire to learn. They don’t have the laser beam focus to really zoom in with what is working, why it works, what does not work, why it did not work and to put the years in that it really takes to learn all the stuff . People think that trading is going to be easy. They come in and they get crushed after a little while. Then they say they’ll never do it again. Guess what, you’ll never do it again and you’ll never succeed." - Dan Zanger

The Science of Posting on Social Media

What both savvy and not-so-savvy social media users know is that there’s a science to getting things right. The savvy users are the ones who happen to understand the science, better. This infographic will show you the best times to be posting on social media

Consider the best time to post on the following social media venues:

Facebook – The best time to post on Facebook is between 1-4 p.m. This is when you can expect the highest click-through rate. Take into consideration each time zone, and make any adjustments from there. The peak time is on Wednesdays at 3 p.m., and the worst time is to post on weekends before 8 a.m., and after 8 p.m. Two posts per day is adequate.

Pinterest – Five Pinterest pins for day is par for the course. The best time is on Saturday morning, and the worst time is during normal working hours. Peak times are on Friday, between 1-4 p.m.

Twitter – Three posts per day are recommended. The best time is Monday-Thursday, 11-3-pm, and the worst time is every day after 8 p.m., and Friday after 3 p.m. Peak times are Monday-Thursday from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Instagram – Post twice every day. Best times are Wednesdays from 2-5 p.m. The worst times are between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. Peak times are on Thursdays.

LinkedIn – Best time to post is Between Tuesday and Thursday. Peak time is noon and 5-6 p.m. The worst times are on Mondays and Fridays between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. Post no more than once a day.

Google + - Three posts per day is recommended. Best times are Monday through Thursday, between 9-10 a.m. Peak times are Wednesdays, and the worst times are early morning and evenings.

Blog Posts – Best time are Tuesday through Wednesday, from 9-11 a.m. The worst time is on Mondays and Fridays, from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Peak time is on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Two posts per week are recommended.

Tumblr – Best time is on Friday evenings at 7 p.m., and the worst time is before 4 p.m. Peak times are Sunday through Tuesdays, 7- 10 p.m. Post twice per day.

Source: http://www.visualistan.com/

Quote for the day

“The usual starting point for forecasting something is its current level. Mosts forecasts extrapolate, perhaps making modest adjustments up or down. In other words, most forecasting is done incrementally, and few predictors contemplate order-of-magnitude changes... Forecasters usually stick too closely to the current level, and on those rare occasions when they call for change, they often underestimate the potential magnitude.”
 - Howard Marks

Markets Will Be Markets

The stock market is bipolar creature, driven by sentiment and irrational expectations. One day, it is an ingenious forward-looking mechanism that anticipates and discounts future events beautifully. Another day, it is a stubborn schizophrenic that can’t see further than its nose.

Markets constantly overreact to both, identified risks and opportunities. It is in the nature of financial markets to exaggerate, to magnify. This is why they are not always discounting the future. Sometimes, they are correcting previously incorrect view. Sometimes, they just go bonkers and send prices to levels that cannot possibly be justified by any future scenario. Boys will be boys. Markets will be markets. They’ll fluctuate violently, up and down and to levels that will seem incomprehensible to many. Indexing, robo-advising and social media won’t change that. The Internet might have made people smarter; but it hasn’t made financial markets more efficient. You could complain and whine about financial markets’ irrationality or you could find a way to take advantage of it. Or don’t. It’s your choice.

If you understand people’s incentives, you are very likely to predict correctly their future behavior and sometimes even influence it. Most incentives have expiration date. What is important today, might not be as important tomorrow. This applies perfectly to life, but not always in financial markets that live in their own world. Incentives require the existence of rationality. We have already made the point that more often than not, markets are not rational, but emotional, at least in a short-term perspective. As Howard Marks eloquently puts it:

Psychological and technical factors can swamp fundamentals. In the long run, value creation and destruction are driven by fundamentals such as economic trends, companies’ earnings, demand for products and the skillfulness of managements. But in the short run, markets are highly responsive to investor psychology and the technical factors that influence the supply and demand for assets. In fact, I think confidence matters more than anything else in the short run. Anything can happen in this regard, with results that are both unpredictable and irrational.

Source: http://ivanhoff.com/

Quote for the day

“Good traders know that opportunistic speculation is a process. Ignore any one single outcome, focus on the methodology that can consistently avoid catastrophic losses, manage risk, preserve capital. A good process can be replicated, a random spin of the wheel cannot.” -  Barry Ritholtz

06-Mar-2015 CSE Trade Summary